I want to preface the following article by stating Bill Simmons is one of my favorite sports writers. He gets criticized for talking too much about himself and whatnot, and although I couldn’t care less about his “buddy J-Bug” or whatever arcane reference he too often makes, I find his writing as a whole very entertaining. And while his taste in music is admittedly terrible, I appreciate Simmons’ constant pop culture analogies. Even though he doesn’t exactly exude literary prowess, nor is he an astute poker player, nearly all of his articles, no matter how excessively long, keep me involved throughout the read. The problem is, during a recent article regarding baseball and which AL team has the best chance of winning the league, it became painfully obvious just how little he follows baseball. The following are excerpts from his article, with my contentious remarks afterward.
“So who’s left? Erik Bedard (a solid No. 3 starter on the right team).”
You mean the Erik Bedard who has a 2.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since the All-Star break? Surely he’s not talking about a left-handed pitcher who gets 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings while pitching in the AL East and not on one of the big-three teams. Did I mention he’s 27 years old? This coming from a guy whose favorite team, the Red Sox, have a No. 2 starter with a 5.35 ERA and just signed him to a $30 million contract. Yeah, Bedard looks like a decent middle of the rotation guy.
“To put the Patterson thing in perspective, I was reading “Baseball Between the Numbers” earlier this summer (interesting book about statistics by the guys from Baseball Prospectus) and they described this stat called VORP, which calculates how many runs you would be worth (or not worth) compared to a replacement-level player at your position.”
What a stathead Simmons must be, discovering the secretive measure of value over replacement player. Next thing we know Bill is going to be telling us OBP is a better indicator than batting average. Incorporating OPS into an article is still probably a few months away, however.
“The Mariners are getting an inspired performance from their bullpen including closer J.J. Putz, who’s suddenly throwing 98 mph and poised to strike out as many guys this season as he did in the past two (and yes, he’s 29 years old, but nobody finds this fishy at all).”
Nope, he has always blown in the upper 90s, it was location that plagued Putz, who has cut his home runs allowed rate significantly down this year. I will admit, however, that his season being so dominant is definitely unexpected.
“I’d put him (Felix Hernandez) behind Liriano, Kazmir and Weaver at this point. Disappointing. Should we have nicknamed him Prince Felix? I feel like we failed him in some way.”
This is Mr. Simmons’ most egregious statement of all. It continues a theme of his, when he often remembers only yesterday and doesn’t look past tomorrow. King Felix is the best pitching prospect of the last 20 years, and maybe ever. Two months of poor pitching after you just turned 20 years old doesn’t change that. I won’t go into detail about his ridiculous repertoire of stuff, but I will tell you he has a 3.59 ERA since May ended and 136 strikeouts in 148 innings from a kid who can’t even drink yet.
Francisco Liriano would rate right beside him if all things were equal, but that lengthy history of arm problems makes that case untrue. Scott Kazmir has a great future ahead of him, but he’s no King Felix. As for Jered Weaver, again great prospect, but let’s not go overboard here. Weaver is an extreme flyball pitcher and so far only 4.8 percent of his flyballs have turned into homers, a ridiculously low rate. For almost every pitcher, that number regresses to 10 percent, which it will for Weaver eventually. Not to mention his hit rate is so unsustainably low. Speaking of flyballs, King Felix’s groundball/flyball ratio is eighth best in all of baseball.
“I can’t take the A’s seriously — no home-field advantage.”
Since 2002, the A’s are 248-138 while playing at home, an absurd .643 winning percentage. Obviously, Simmons has been lucky enough to have never visited the dump that is McAfee Coliseum.
In so many words, Simmons assumes the Wily Mo Pena for Bronson Arroyo trade was a very bad one for Boston.
Arroyo got off to a great three months in the NL, where his breaking pitches worked much better. The AL had already figured him out, and it’s highly doubtful his numbers would have even approached those if he had stayed in the junior circuit. His ERA is over 5 in his last 50 innings, and lefties continue to pound him – he’s given up a staggering 19 home runs in 83 innings while facing left-handers.
Wily Mo Pena, on the other hand, just keeps on hitting. His rate stats are down because of Francona’s resistance to use him, and while he’s still an adventure in the field, there’s no denying his ability to rake. When he hits 40 bombs next year, then maybe it will be time to assess that trade.
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