Yeah, ironic how I ended up getting ATL right but Sea wrong. Good call w/ Minny, as they were outplaying them even before the Hasselbeck injury. I was with you on that Oak feeling, and boy did Arizona look flat. Good calls though.

Guy Im playing trades Tony Gonzalez for Hines Ward. So Ward gets him 39.7 points and the kicker is that after trading Gonzalez he puts in…wait for it…you guessed it…Alge F***ing Crumpler who gets him another 40 points and I lose by 23.

/cry

PS: Nice call on that Atlanta score and how bout them Vikings and Raiders!?!

Regarding the Oakland game – that somewhat falls under my Atl reasoning there, and I think you could easily be right. Most people will be all over Arizona, seeing how impressive (for the most part) they were against the Bears on National television and the Raiders, after all, are winless. BUT, Zona could easily have a letdown and are traveling during a short week, a set up for disaster. Oakland has to win sometime, right? I personally am staying away from that game, b/c I think Oak is that bad, but I def. could see you being right.

Sounds like you know your stuff when it comes to gambling – why’d you stop?

Road teams favored by 3.5 (but still favored) are 7 and 9 against the spread based on my review.

That is pretty powerful small sample size evidence to suggest you might have a good dog to take in Atlanta’s game roto!

but in re-reading my above novel I said something that isnt really true and bears explaining. Vegas isnt always looking to get even bets on each side. They are looking to maximize profits in certain games and to limit liabilities in others. The vig gives them them a nice pot to play with but it doesnt equal huge amounts of money in most games. But they also dont want set lines to get bets all on one side b/c that would suicide.

I dont have any hard facts on it but I think that there are probably 3 to 4 games per week that the odds makers are taking a position on. If you can find those 3 to 4 games you will make a killing but if you do find them then I think you are also probably either working for them or on their list of people not to do business with if you do for a period of time that cant merely be explained by luck.

If you pick road underdogs getting less than three points you would do well over the course of a season to take them.

I can also tell you that home underdogs getting 3 points means you should take them b/c generally home field in the nfl automatically moves the line 2.5 to 3 points.

A good general rule of thumb is that if you see a home team favored by less than 3 points or getting points Vegas thinks the visiting team is going to win. That isn’t always the case but it is a good rule of thumb.

But one thing you need to remember is that Vegas only wants to even the money on each side to get the vig. Some disagree that that is always true but there are no nevers and always in sports betting.

I dont bet on sports but I have some experience (albeit it way back in the day) in it and I think that the game is a toss up.

The fact that Pittsburgh is giving 2.5 points tells me that Vegas thinks they are going to probably win 20 to 17 based on what the over/under is on the game too (37 1/2). So Vegas is hoping to get some people take Vick and the broken birds and the over after Pittsburgh’s big game last week. So if they can cover Pittsburgh’s bets with Atlanta’s and then get more people to bet on the over they are sitting pretty when it is a low scoring game

As for Minnesota beating Seattle it is just a gut feeling I have. But without Alexander they are going to be throwing a ton and will be one dimensional because the vikings are going to stuff any attempt at a running game. Minnesota’s defense looked pretty good in the two games I saw (bears and redskins) so I think it is a good upset special to pick. If I had to rank it I would say I would put 5 points on Minnesota since I know 9/10 people that would do a pick em against the spread would take Seattle in that game and with big points on it. I could make up the lost points elsewhere on some other interesting games if I had to.

Keith, before I read that Leftwich was on the injured list I would have said you HAD to start him over Vick. Now it looks like you will have to start Vick.

Chad, I think we are going to see CMart playing in 3 weeks so I am not touching anyone in the Jets backfield. I wouldn’t start Washington this week over Dillon or Toomer.

Everyone has been telling me i’m crazy for expecting a lot out of Washington this week. But I think Young Leo has proven himself quite talented (5+ yrd/car this past week against Miami, season:4.3yrd/car), and with Barlow being mostly worthless, it only makes sense to me that Leon should see some continued increase in carries. I know Detroit is decent against the Rush, but it’s one of those gut feelings i have this week (and to reiterate, i’d expect them to be playing ahead), and I won’t feel right telling people, “I told you so” unless I had the balls to actually play him.

I’m officially talked out of it at this point, since pretty much every reliable source (and even the not-so-reliable) has sided with starting dillon.

Chad has no sack.

Regarding Leon Washington, no, you’re not ridiculous, as I see the Jets winning that game. Still, Detroit’s run D actually hasn’t been that bad (their Pass D, however, has been horrendous), but they will be missing Shaun Rogers, and the Jets will likely be playing mostly ahead…Still, Barlow remains a factor (don’t ask me why) and is more likely to get the goal-line looks. Although he’s in a time share as well, in this case, I have to suggest Dillon over Washington.

Also, am i ridiculous to think Leon Washington should have some success against Detroit? I forsee an early lead for the jets, where Leon could rack up quite a bit of 2nd half yardage. That being said, i’ve placed him in my line up as RB2 this week over the above mentioned Dillon and Green. I’m afraid Dillon won’t be of much use against buffalo, especially sharing carries with Maroney. And Green could have trouble with Miami’s D, not to mention his nagging injuries, and Welker, may or may not play, and even if he does, Booker may return to relinquish starting duties, and steal looks. I’m thinking Toomer will get Looks, may not find the promised land this weekend, but should bring in some catches.

My Vick/Leftwich question was for my other league…but I just saw that Leftwich is questionable now, and might be a game-time decision, and since I’m out of town on Sunday (hopefully I can at least sneak away to a Sports Bar…I hate not being able to watch the games!), I’ll probably have to play Vick to be safe…but I really would worry about the Jags running 40+ times, especially with Mo-Jo looking like an oompa loompa on speed.