Archive for February, 2007

On To The Important Stuff

Tuesday, February 6th, 2007

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

For whatever reason, I didn’t really care about the Super Bowl. I had little hope for the Bears and was burnt out by Tuesday on Super Bowl puff pieces. Do we really need two weeks before the game? Nevertheless, I’m not one to pass up free food and booze and always enjoy a good Super Bowl bash. Despite being blacked out and covered in Cheeto dust and semisoft cheeses by the end of the third quarter, I gathered the following: The Colts won, Rex Grossman is bad, as is rain, Tony Dungy is the first (half) black coach to win the Super Bowl, and Prince is the first (half) black superstar to come correct during a halftime show. Purple Rain, Purple Rain.

Now on to the important stuff: College Basketball and bad television…

Kevin Durant is the best player in college basketball and the best freshman in the history of the game (at least the best frosh allowed to play with the varsity). Despite a relatively slow start, the man is putting up 25.0 points and 11.6 rebounds a game and continues to improve as does the entire Texas team, which boasts six freshmen among its top eight scorers. I’m still taking Old Man Oden first overall though.

Spencer from “The Hills” turned in an absolute tour de force performance last night and cemented his place in the Reality Television Hall of Fame. Not even a flameout of Doc Gooden proportions could stop the man now. Consequently, I have reworked my role model top five to look like this:

1. Rony Seikaly
2. Justin Timberlake
3. Spencer
4. Joey Goldman
5. The Milf Hunter

If you’re not already watching Spencer on “The Hills,” it’s time to recognize.

I’ve mentioned before that the Pac-10 is the best conference in the country, and next year it should be even better. Amazingly, there are only eight senior starters in the entire conference and some big boys are coming next year. I had the pleasure of watching UCLA-bound Kevin Love tear apart Mater Dei Saturday night. Love is going to be the best freshman in the country next year and keep the Bruins in the top five. Mater Dei starts four players 6′8″ and up and brings an Arizona-bound 7′1″ giant off the bench.

Judd Apatow’s latest joint, “Knocked Up,” looks like it will deliver the goods to all of us 40-Year-Old Virgin fans. Check out the trailers:

I recently noticed that my Sporting News College Basketball Preview magazine had Butler ranked seventh out of nine teams in the formidable Horizon conference. Well, after winning the Preseason NIT and beating up on weaker conference opponents, Butler has cruised to a No. 9 ranking and figures to be this year’s Gonzaga. Watch them get a ‘low’ five or six seed only to lose in the first round.

Monday Morning Quarterback

Monday, February 5th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

What an ugly game. Six turnovers, a missed extra point and short field goal all in the first half. Where are you Chargers and Saints?

Rex Grossman has been piled on enough, but come on guy, even I couldn’t have predicted such a poor showing. Not one, but two fumbled snaps? Also, how do you throw a wobbly, late-arriving pass to the sideline on first down?

For a dome team, Indy really doesn’t get enough credit for its physical style of play. And what about Bob Sanders? It’s easy to place too much credit for their D’s turnaround on him, but this guy truly is one of the very best DBs in the league already.

With each Joseph Addai catch (10!) or run, I cringed, thinking the world was seeing first hand what he’s capable of next season, and thus, it’s going to take an even earlier pick in fantasy leagues to get him. At least Dominic Rhodes played well also, but Addai is easily going to be a top-10 pick next year.

K-Fed’s was amusing enough, but overall, I thought the commercials weren’t great this year.

What a Super Bowl Ced Benson!

I didn’t do so great with my prop bets, but I nearly nailed the final score (31-17) and did pick the Colts in the preseason to win it all. Then again, I’m pretty sure I picked them to win each of the last three years, so I was bound to be right eventually. While we’re patting myself on the back, I’d like to also point out my nifty 8-3 record against the spread during the playoffs.

Rare that something so predictable (Devin Hester’s TD return) actually ends up happening. And on the first play of the game to boot. And like Ted Ginn before him, his team pretty much got dominated from that point on.

The Colts won, but I hope the media doesn’t even begin to credit it with a turnaround in their run defense; after all, the unit allowed 5.8 yards per carry Sunday. Some day, people will stop equating the ability to run and stop the run with wins and losses. Maybe the team with the worst rush defense in the history of the game going on to win the Super Bowl will have something to do with that.

No one really else to give the MVP to, so the Peyton Manning choice by default was OK by me. Rex Grossman was my second choice, but that probably would have come across as rude.

Tony Dungy’s decision to not kick the field goal at the end of the game literally decided the over/under and made many people love or hate him in the process.

Congratulations Indy.

Super Bowl Preview

Thursday, February 1st, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Ironically, the Colts find themselves in the Super Bowl the one postseason everyone had written them off. It’s easy to forget, but Indy and Chicago were the last teams to lose during the regular season, peaking early but apparently again late. Everyone wants to see a good game Sunday, and Indy really hasn’t played all that well this postseason except for the second half against New England. On the surface, however, this game really does look like a mismatch.

The AFC dominated inter-conference games this year; since Week 7, the AFC went 34-11 against the inferior NFC, beating its opponents by an average of 7.6 points per game. Indianapolis has faced seven top six pass defenses this season and went 6-1 against them, scoring more than 25 points per game. The Bears have hardly played like a top defense since losing Tommie Harris, their best defensive player.

Indy’s emerging defense is yet another poor matchup for Chicago, and specifically, Rex Grossman. The Colts, as do the Bears, play the Cover 2, which concentrates on limiting big plays. Unfortunately for Chicago, Grossman relies heavily on the big play, as almost 12 percent of his completions went for more than 25 yards this season. The Colts allowed a “big play” on just six percent of completions, by far the lowest rate in the league. Manning mastered the dink and dunk this year, but asking Grossman to do so efficiently for 60 minutes is a tall order. How is he going to react if Chicago gets down early?

All of that said, the Bears aren’t doormats and do have some chalk on their side as well. Chicago forced 44 turnovers during the regular season, and this may be the single biggest factor Sunday. Considering Peyton Manning actually gets sacked less when blitzed than when not, Chicago is going to struggle creating turnovers with pressure. The Bears recovered an NFL-high 20 fumbles this year; the most unpredictable, equalizing play in football. Also, Chicago may hold the greatest advantage in the game: kick returns. Led by Devin Hester, the Bears have the best special teams unit in the league, while Indy sports one of the very worst.

The Bears catch a break the game isn’t going to be played on turf, but Chicago also won’t be aided by wind chill, a sloppy field, or any other extreme homefield advantage like when playing at Soldier Field. If Manning is going to make his mark on a legacy this Sunday, Marvin Harrison probably needs to break out of his postseason funk. Over the last 13 playoff games Harrison has played, the wideout has recorded zero touchdowns in 12 of them and tallied 299 yards total during his last seven postseason games.

While I can’t see Indy losing this game, and I’d be mildly shocked if it wasn’t a blowout, one major caveat exists here: the public is going to be predominantly siding with Indianapolis as well – after all, they have the more prolific skill position players – and the public is usually wrong. Last year, I thought the same exact thing about Pittsburgh, so I backed Seattle. This year, I’m not making the same mistake. The last two Super Bowls held in Miami have been blowouts; count on it happening again.

COLTS 31-17

Offseason Player Movement - 10 Losers

Thursday, February 1st, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Editor’s Note: The following article was written for Yahoo’s baseball draft kit, which RotoWire produces.

Andy Pettitte – Pettitte’s run support should increase significantly now back in a Yankees’ uniform, but the rest of his numbers should suffer as a result of the league switch. During the final six seasons in his last stint pitching in New York, Pettitte kept his ERA under 3.99 just once, and that was during an injury-shortened campaign. His WHIP was never better than 1.31 during that same time span. The AL East remains filled with powerful lineups, so expect Pettitte’s numbers to regress from where they were as an Astro over the last three years.

Mike Gonzalez – While a move from Pittsburgh to Atlanta means an improved team, it also means Gonzalez enters the season as a setup man and no longer a closer. He may be the long-term answer to close in Atlanta, but Bob Wickman figures to remain effective enough for one more season. Gonzalez was an exceptional 24-for-24 in save chances last year, but it could take some adjusting to when being asked to enter with men on base this season, especially considering his high walk rate. He’s likely to remain effective, but losing the closer’s role decreases his fantasy value significantly.

Gary Sheffield - Yankee Stadium is rough on right-handed hitters, but leaving that potent lineup can only hurt Sheffield’s counting stats. During his career, Sheffield has posted a .932 OPS at Yankee Stadium and just a .640 OPS at Comerica Park. If the Tigers go through with their plan of playing him primarily at DH, Sheffield has a better chance of staying healthy and could still be a productive bat. Still, leaving the Yankees’ lineup decreases his chances at another 125 RBI season.

Gary Matthews – Matthews was paid well, but he traded a hitter’s paradise for a park in Anaheim that saps power from both sides of the plate. He also moves to a lineup that figures to score fewer runs than when he was playing for Texas. Coming off a career-year at age 32, Matthews already had the deck stacked against him; the change in scenery only adds to his likelihood of being a bust in 2007.

Adam LaRoche – There are some advantages to LaRoche’s move from Atlanta to Pittsburgh, as he’s likely to bat cleanup now. Last year, he often found himself batting toward the bottom of the lineup. However, PNC Park suppresses home runs almost more than any other park in baseball, so another run at 30 bombs appears unlikely. LaRoche also may see more time against left-handers this season, and while that will help his counting stats, his average will likely take a hit as a result; he’s batted just .228 in 180 career at-bats versus southpaws. Hitting directly behind Jason Bay is nice, but the rest of Pittsburgh’s lineup is a big drop off from Atlanta’s. LaRoche’s 2006 season is likely to go down as a career-year.

Luis Gonzalez – When Gonzalez became a Dodger, he left behind one of the game’s best hitter’s parks for one of the top pitcher’s parks in Dodger Stadium. During his career, he’s posted a .904 OPS at Chase Field but just a .770 OPS in 403 career at-bats at Dodger Stadium. Gonzalez isn’t likely to even reach 20 homers in 2007.

Marcus Giles – Petco Park is the toughest park to hit in, and it’s not even close. Turner Field has mostly played as a neutral park, but going to San Diego now will really suppress Giles’ numbers and makes him a far less enticing fantasy property.

Doug Davis – Davis could approach 15 wins with better run support in Arizona, but he now finds himself pitching in one of baseball’s best environments for hitters; Chase Field allowed the most home runs in the National League last year. Davis found most of his success while pitching at Miller Park throughout his career, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home and in a Brewers’ uniform. When pitching everywhere else, Davis sees his ERA increase all the way to 4.82. Expect a similar number this season.

Jay Payton – Payton upgraded ballparks when he moved from Oakland to Baltimore, but he also gave up plenty of at-bats in the process. Once the Orioles added Aubrey Huff, Payton essentially became a fourth outfielder. Last season, Payton received 557 at-bats, the second highest total of his career. This year, he’ll be lucky if he gets half of that amount.

Woody Williams – In choosing his hometown of Houston, Williams left baseball’s best pitching park in San Diego to join the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park. Over the last two seasons, Williams succeeded almost exclusively at home, compiling a 3.39 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP pitching at Petco Park and a 5.46 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP on the road. He previously had his uses if you were able to spot start him, but in 2007, Williams figures to cease all fantasy value except those in NL-only leagues.