Position Scarcity

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

While some overrate position scarcity, others pay no attention to it. Winning is likely possible with either strategy, but the object of this article is to decide just how to go about dealing with thin positions. First off, let’s identify which positions are shallow and which ones are loaded with talent. Obviously, each person’s particular league rules have an effect on this, so realize the difference between a 10-team league and a 15-team one.

Outfield – It’s top heavy, with numerous sleeper/upside options in the middle tiers. Overall, there are at least 60-70 quality options. Verdict = Deep

1B – Not as deep as usual. Surprisingly, first base is one of the thinner positions this year, as after you get through the top-13 options, only players with significant risk remain. Personally, I’m not even enamored with options 8-13 either. A smart owner will use 3B as their corner infield position, waiting to fill that out later on. Verdict = Shallow

2B – While middle infield is typically considered the toughest area to fill out each season, that’s not the case with second this year. Chase Utley separates himself, but there are 15 rock solid options and a handful more that could easily prove capable. Verdict = Deep

SS – There’s a pretty clear-cut top-7, and one or two from that tier have typically been falling even into the fourth round, making a great value pick. The next tier (8-13) is a solid yet not without risk group. After that, you’re reaching. Verdict = Somewhat Shallow

3B – There’s a clear-cut top-3, and then a clear-cut 2nd tier. Options 7-15 will differ on almost every single cheat sheet, but all come with big reward/risk. Since another 10 options exist as passable CI starters even after that, third base is about as deep as it gets. Don’t pigeon hole yourself and take two early, as that blocks your ability to fill it out with value later on. Verdict = Very Deep

Catcher – In a two-catcher format, Joe Mauer has been undervalued in most leagues. In those formats, he’s worthy of a top-20 pick. In 1-catcher formats, it’s not nearly as big of a deal, since 12 solid options exist. Still, in those 2-C leagues, you better not wait, because options 18-30 are pretty terrible. Remember, production isn’t always just production:

Catcher #1 25 HRs
Catcher #2 15 HRs
Outfielder #1 40 HRs
Outfielders#2 35 HRs

In this example, catcher #1 is obviously the first pick, despite hitting 15 fewer HRs than Outfielder #1.

Relief Pitchers – Do yourself a favor and wait on the closers run. If you’re drafting for saves before round 5, you’re doing a great disservice to yourself. Not only is the “saves” category the most volatile and unpredictable category, but about 30% of this position won’t finish there at season’s end. Also, drafting a starting pitcher contributes about 2.5-3 times as much to your team as a RP, since that’s how many more innings they hurl. Verdict – Wait, it’s deep enough

Starting Pitchers – This very much so depends on your league format. If you have a 1250 innings cap, you can probably afford to wait a few rounds before taking a SP. Starting pitchers are underrated in general, but in that format, taking five and some RPs should be enough to reach the innings cap. In leagues that allow a bigger innings max, SPs become even more valuable. Remember, in an 1800 innings cap league with 14 starting offensive players, a SP will count for about 1/8 of your pitching stats while an offensive player counts for 1/14. While many sneaky, bottom tier options exist this year, don’t miss the boat early on, as plenty of upper echelon hurlers are falling into the middle rounds. Verdict = Not Deep

In summation, going crazy and drafting Chase Utley over Albert Pujols is obviously wrong, but position scarcity is a very real thing and must be accounted for. When drafting, take a look at how many options that you would be comfortable with inserting into your starting lineup remain at each position. If very few remain at SS but plenty do at OF, use that as a determining factor if you’re deciding between Edgar Renteria and Magglio Ordonez, even if you think Mags is going to put up slightly better numbers.

Good position scarcity targets:
Round 1 – Chase Utley.
Round 2 – Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez (SBs are a category scarcity) and Joe Mauer (if 2-C league).
Round 3 – Derrek Lee
Rounds 4-7 – Starting Pitchers. Think Jake Peavy (ADP=46) and John Smoltz (ADP=69).
Later Rounds – Fill out relief pitching, outfield and 3B/CI.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

One response to “Position Scarcity”

  1. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    League size and rules makes all the difference here. I also think I’ll refuse to play in any 2-catcher league, but a lot of them seem to exist for some reason. I think my ideal draft (12+ teams) is either Crawford/Utley in the 1st, Carpenter in the 2nd (or Peavy in the 3rd), Rollins in the 3rd, and McCann in 4th/5th. I think there are a lot of OF and SP sleepers you can fill out the rest of the team with in the middle rounds. 1B scares me this year…I got hurt last year by not having a top-20 1B guy, but I was stacked at the scarcer positions in a 14-team league. It’s just kind of demoralizing playing the waiver-wire merry go round all year at a position you’d like to have a slugger in. Unfortunately, I don’t really have a good 1B late-round target.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *