Player Spotlight: Jonathan Papelbon

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

The recent decision to move Jonathan Papelbon back into the closer’s role will have a major impact both on fantasy and real baseball. There are arguments to be made for both sides, but on the surface, it appears to be very bad news for the Boston Red Sox and pretty good, not great, news for fantasy owners.

Papelbon wants to close. He says he feels most comfortable in that role and that he helps the team most when pitching in the ninth inning. While the former may be of importance, the latter is egregiously inaccurate. Having a player feel “comfortable” and ultimately most happy in his role needs to be taken into account. For years, Barry Bonds demanded he occupy the cleanup spot, despite the fact he would see 20-30 fewer at-bats over the course of a season and his high OBP played better earlier in the order. What Bonds wants, Bonds gets, and I agreed with the managerial decision to side with the slugger, whose contentment was ultimately more important. Happiness aside, the problem with this reasoning, however, is that when a player such as Papelbon thinks he’s “helping his team more,” he’s often misinformed and mistaken.

No matter how hard the media try to sway our opinion, the ninth inning isn’t any more important than the first inning. Or the third inning. While the pressure of the ninth means a specific type of personality on the mound may perform better, it still doesn’t change the fact that Papelbon throwing 200 innings is more valuable to the Red Sox than him throwing 70. Hey, I have an idea; don’t start David Ortiz this year. Just wait until the ninth inning, and then use him exclusively as a pinch-hitter. After all, he’s clutch! Those 162 at-bats compared to last year’s 558 would be a similar decline (71 percent) to Papelbon’s (65 percent) projected starter innings to relief innings (200 to 70).

What about those projected innings you ask? Well, maybe the biggest factor of all here, is Papelbon’s health. Benefits of pitching in the pen or the rotation are fairly specific to the individual. While Kerry Wood struggles nowadays when he reaches the 50-60 pitch count, and he’ll have a better chance of staying healthy in the pen, John Smoltz swears the bullpen nearly ruined his arm, and the rotation is much more conducive to his overall health. Papelbon came up through the minors as a starter, and the main reason Boston wanted to move him into the rotation in the first place was because the team’s medical staff recommended it. Regular rest and a regimented workload were best for his already tenuous shoulder and long-term health. If this decision was made because Boston was uncomfortable with their alternate closing options (despite the fact Joel Pineiro has been lights out of late), it’s truly ridiculous.

As far as fantasy is concerned, his value probably increases, as the “saves” category actually matters unlike in the real sport. However, you’ll lose 80-110 strikeouts, around 10-12 wins, and an ERA/WHIP of 3.50/1.25 in 200 innings is at least as valuable as an ERA/WHIP of 2.50/1.10 in 70 innings. Still, at minimum, his perceived fantasy value will probably shoot through the roof, so if you drafted him wanting the starter stats, I’d recommend you shop him immediately. Ultimately, the fantasy ramifications will come down to whether this decision benefits or damages his ability to stay healthy.

In my opinion, the Red Sox just relinquished their title as World Series favorites over to the Yankees.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

8 responses to “Player Spotlight: Jonathan Papelbon”

  1. Todd Avatar
    Todd

    Although I believe Lester will eventually make a decent to good fill in for their rotation, I for the most part am on board with your assessment. People overrate Boston’s team needs for a 9th inning guy, when in actuality, another dominant starter is much more important.

  2. sir boss hog outlaw III Avatar
    sir boss hog outlaw III

    you didn’t adress the most important part…does this guy have the personanilty to close out games in the ninth….if i were a gm i would love to have a guy step up and demand the role….lets take there arch nemesis, rivera was certainly a key component to the yankees world series run…you might be right, but im not ready to dismiss the move yet

  3. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    While a good closer is certainly valuable, there is simply no way they can compare to the value of a good starter. That Paps comparison is actually quite striking; I’ve never really thought of it that way, but it’s difficult to argue with those numbers. If Paps couldn’t cut it in the rotation, that’s one thing, but all indications are that he would be at least above-average, with the potential for much more. It’s simply much easier to find someone who can be succesful in the 9th inning, than one who can be for the first 7, and the difference will be obvious in the standings at the end of the season.

    This year, I think I’m actually going to try and punt saves in my H2H leagues, and squeak by with lower-tier guys and FA pickups in my keeper league (I did keep Street). I hate closers.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Boss Hog – Yes, I agree and did mention the fact that it takes a certain type of personality to excel in late-inning, pressure situations. It’s an intangible quality that must be taken into account.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – Well said.

    For some reason, I can never come away from a draft with more than two closers. In fact, I’m lucky if I get one of em. Especially in a H2H league, I think that’s a fine strategy to use. I hate closers too.

  6. Jason Avatar
    Jason

    I don’t see the Yankees getting a World Series with a pitching staff that is still suspect after Mussina.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I’ll be rolling out divisional previews soon, but in short, the Yanks lineup is just plain insane. Normally I’m all about looking at pitching staffs when predicting these things, but it’s hard to ignore those bats. I hear you tho, C. Pavano might start on Opening Day for them!

    Although he’ll likely battle some ailments throughout the year and isn’t a great fantasy bet, Andy Pettitte is still probably a top-10 option in baseball pitching with a season on the line in October. I hope you’re right, however, b/c I’m no NY fan.

  8. Danni Avatar
    Danni

    He’s so hot, and he’s a great closer. I just love Jonathan Papelbon!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *