National League West Preview

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

1. San Diego Padres 88-74

Overview: My favorite long shot bet, the Padres enter 2007 again mostly overlooked. Surprising for a team that has won back-to-back division titles, although never eclipsing 88-wins in the process. The Padres remain the class of an improving yet still weak division.

Hitting: While there’s no true superstar here, the lineup should be sneaky productive. The Terrmel Sledge/Jose Cruz Jr. combo will be an effective platoon, and Brian Giles can still get on base at an elite clip. Adrian Gonzalez is coming into his own, and the only thing standing in the way of a 90-RBI season from Kevin Kouzmanoff is health. Maybe this is the year Khalil Greene approaches his potential.

Pitching: Playing in a pitcher’s park has an inherent advantage, as San Diego’s hurlers will inevitably be more fresh throughout the season than a team in a hitter’s park, where more runs, and therefore pitches, are a certainty. Speaking of wearing down, it’d be nice if Chris Young became more efficient, as he throws as many pitches per plate appearance as anyone in baseball. Good thing their bullpen remains strong, as the team has consistently fought off potential Scott Linebrink suitors. Jake Peavy is going to win a Cy Young one of these years, and Clay Hensley, David Wells and Greg Maddux round out one of the best rotations in the game. Bud Black can only help.



2. Los Angeles Dodgers 85-77

Overview: The Dodgers enter the season as pretty big favorites to win the NL West, at least as far as the bookmakers are concerned. Still, adding Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez and a declining Jason Schmidt hardly qualifies as progress, and the loss of JD Drew will hurt. It’s a good, not great team that will be fighting for the playoffs throughout thanks largely to their division.

Hitting: Signing Juan Pierre (a downgrade from Kenny Lofton) for $44 million will haunt this franchise. Pierre is a valuable fantasy player and all, but having a guy atop your lineup with OBPs of .326 and .330 over the last two seasons is not good; especially when you factor in the 20 times he was caught stealing last year. Jeff Kent probably has one more monster season in him, but Nomar Garciaparra can’t be relied upon to stay healthy, and Luis Gonzalez is a below average regular nowadays. Los Angeles will need to win with pitching.

Pitching: This group should be solid, but the team’s resistance to insert Chad Billingsley into the rotation is frustrating. Derek Lowe has quietly turned into an ace, and Randy Wolf was a nice, under-the-radar signing. Jason Schmidt’s days of dominance are probably over, but he can still be a decent No. 2 or No. 3 starter, even with his velocity down from what it once was. Takashi Saito won’t be quite as effective during his second stint around the league, but he and Jonathan Broxton from a solid duo at the back end of the Dodgers’ pen.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks 80-82

Overview: Soon enough, this team will be a force. Probably too young to ultimately challenge for the division title this season, the team figures only to get better as the year moves along. If they mature quicker than expected, it’s not out of the question they win it as soon as this season.

Hitting: Playing in a hitter’s paradise known as Chase Field, Arizona has plenty of young bats with potential up and down this year’s lineup. Aside from the catching situation, the weakest hitter in their lineup might very well be Eric Byrnes, who is projected to hit cleanup. Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Carlos Quentin are all viable ROY candidates. Actually, Quentin had slightly too many at-bats last year to qualify, but you get the idea.

Pitching: While the roof helps prevent the pitchers from wearing down in the Arizona heat, throwing in one of baseball’s best hitter’s parks takes its toll on the staff. The end of the rotation remains a weak point, and the bullpen is volatile, but Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson for a great one-two punch. Yes, Johnson will have a bounce back year after returning to the NL. Since he’s 43 and coming off back surgery, don’t expect another Cy Young campaign; however, the last time he pitched in the desert, as recently as 2004, he struck out 290 batters and posted a 2.60 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

4. San Francisco Giants 78-84

Overview: For an extensive look at SF, check out my previous preview.

Hitting: Finally, a manager was able to knock some sense into Barry Bonds and convince him that batting third instead of cleanup would be best. While it doesn’t figure to have a big impact (you could pick a lineup out of a hat and statistical evidence shows it has a minimal effect over the course of a season), getting him more at-bats and making it easier to remove him late in games is the way to go. Even when he’s actively trying not to hit home runs, Bonds is raking this spring and should have his best season since 2004 this year. Dave Roberts adds a much-needed dimension of speed to the lineup, but it still consists primarily of old, injury-prone mediocrity. Losing Moises Alou hurts.

Pitching: For a pitcher with a sinking K rate and an increasing walk rate, Barry Zito was given too lengthy of a contract. Still, he should produce solid numbers now throwing in the NL. Matt Cain may not truly break out until next year, but he’s a future ace. Tim Lincecum is “the franchise” and gives the Giants a future top-3 that’s as good as any team, but Lincecum starts this year at Triple-A Fresno. Problems exist with the rest of the staff: Noah Lowry is a candidate to bounce back after an oblique injury ruined his season last year, but he recently stated that the injury is still throwing off his mechanics, and the spring results have been dreadful. Matt Morris is nothing more than a No. 4, or even No. 5 starter nowadays, and although Russ Ortiz has pitched well this spring after a mechanical adjustment introduced more movement to his cutter, well, he’s still Russ Ortiz. I’d place the chances of Armando Benitez donning an SF uniform come Opening Day at 50/50, with Brian Wilson the alternative to close. The bullpen is pretty much a mess.

5. Colorado Rockies 74-88

Overview: Colorado finally has a plan, and it’s sticking to it. Still nothing more than a last place team, at least the Rockies are developing young talent and looking toward the future. As for Coors Field, it went back to playing like an extreme hitter’s park over the final six weeks of the season last year, and it’s anyone’s guess how the humidor will affect runs scored this time around. Even when the numbers were down, more runs were scored there than most parks. Target Colorado hitters and pass on any pitcher not named Brian Fuentes.

Hitting: Batting Matt Holliday fifth doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. With Todd Helton’s injuries robbing him of his previous power and his ability to still reach base at an elite clip, he’d make a perfect No. 2 hitter. As is, he’s in a great situation hitting in between Garrett Atkins and Holliday. Willy Taveras could run wild this year, and the spacious Coors outfield should be conducive to the speedsters average. The Rockies will have to be patient with Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta’s development.

Pitching: There’s not a whole lot to like here, although bringing Jason Hirsh in was a good move. Jeff Francis is the team’s future ace, but his K/BB ratio needs significant improvement. Fuentes is one of the more underrated relievers in the game, as he held opponents to a .209 batting average last year while playing half his games in Coors Field.


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5 responses to “National League West Preview”

  1. MaddenDude Avatar

    Kind of off topic, but how do you project Todd Helton this season?

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Despite adding 30 pounds of muscle in hopes of regaining his old power stroke, Helton’s days of blasting 30 bombs are probably over. Still, I think he’s typically being undervalued in fantasy leagues. Coors Field is still very much so a hitter’s park (and it may play even more so this way this year than last) and as I mentioned above, hitting cleanup in between Atkins and Holliday is a great place to be. Even during his worst years, he gets on base at a .400 clip. Maybe he returns to health this year compared to the last couple of seasons. My projection would be a .315-23-95-90 type year. Still plenty valuable.

  3. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Man, the D’backs and Rockies have a lot of young talent in the bigs, while the Giants and Dodgers just get old…and the Dodgers basically have the best farm system in the bigs right now, so they’re going to be re-loading soon. If it wasn’t for Lincecum, the Giants fans would have little reason for optimism. If they can straighten out Lowry and get Lincecum up soon, that’d be more than a good enough top-4 to make them competitive. I’m trying to hold onto Lincecum in my keeper league, but am dying wasting the roster spot…any guesses as to when he’ll be up?

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I’m not optimistic about Lowry, who’s still having mechanical issues that an injury he suffered one calendar year ago is causing. Lincecum is the real deal and well worth holding onto in a keeper league. Since he pitched in college, he should be more ready to contribute immediately than a high schooler. Plus, he plays in the right division and ballpark to really reach that potential.

    As for when, I think he’ll be up within the first couple of months. There’s a chance he emerges as the closer (SF brass wants Benitez gone, and B. Wilson doesn’t appear ready right now), but the plan is to groom him as a starter in Triple-A, which is best for everyone concerned. Russ Ortiz is still Russ Ortiz, but J. Sanchez would be the likely first replacement for a fifth starter if needed. Bottom line, one way or the other Lincecum will be pitching in San Francisco by the All-Star break, if not much sooner.

  5. Jakob Avatar

    This is exactly what I expected to find out after reading the title National League West Preview. Thanks for informative article

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