By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Both Dalton and Tim Dierkes over at Rotoworld have recently written articles analyzing position scarcity (Dierkes’ article can be found here), and I wanted to weigh in with my own, somewhat different, opinion on things.

The true value of a player is determined by how much better his stats are when compared to the statistics of the last player at that position worthy of a starting spot. You should not be comparing Chase Utley’s numbers to the next best second baseman but rather to the worst starting second baseman in your league. Let’s call the aforementioned worst starting player the “baseline player.” For the sake of simplicity I am going to pool all of the supposedly talent rich positions together (corner infield and outfield) and combine shortstop and second base together into middle infield.

In a standard 12-team league that starts three middle infielders and nine combined outfielders and corner infielders (note: I am including the utility/DH position with the OF/CI slot), the baseline players are going to be the 36th-ranked middle infielder and the 108th-ranked CI/OF. The 12th-ranked catcher and 24th-ranked catcher are the baseline players in one and two-catcher leagues, respectively. So, who are these baseline players and what are their stats? Without further ado…

The 36th ranked middle infielder from last season, by virtue of Yahoo’s somewhat nebulous ranking system (I used ‘ranking’ which purports to rank based solely on last season’s statistics, as opposed to the overall rank) is none other than the great Jeff Kent. Kent is ranked 296 with a line that reads 61-14-68-1-292. Solid production from the last middle infielder worthy of a starting spot.

The 12th ranked catcher is another old time favorite, Jason Kendall, who is ranked 326 overall with a stat line of 76-1-50-11-295.

So, who is the 108th corner infielder/outfielder on the board? It’s Monterey (CA) hometown hero, Xavier Nady, ranked 328 with a line of 57-17-63-3-280.

That’s right, the baseline player at the deep positions is actually ranked lower than both the baseline middle infielder and catcher. Now two factors in my number crunching mitigate this surprising result. First, I assumed that all utility/DH positions were filled by outfielders and corner infielders and also assumed that any player who was eligible at a “weak and “strong” position would be played at the “weak” position (e.g. Howie Kendrick was not counted as a first baseman because it was assumed that he would be played at 2nd). So, in an effort to be more accurate, let’s go ahead and assume that four out of twelve of the teams in the league are using a player designated as a middle infielder at one of the “strong” slots. Our new baseline players are now:

“Strong” Player - Eric Chavez 74-22-72-3-241 Yahoo! Ranking - 309

Middle Infielder - Nick Punto 73-1-45-17-290 Yahoo! Ranking - 322

So that’s a bit more like it. The bottom line is, while the disparity between “strong” and “weak” positions appears to be pretty significant at the top of the draft, the truth is there is little or no difference at the end, which is where it really matters. The only time this isn’t the case is in two catcher leagues.

The baseline catcher in two-catcher leagues is Jason Varitek, the 570th ranked player on Yahoo with a lowly line of 46-12-55-1-238. This is a huge drop off from the other baseline guys and puts a huge premium on good catchers. Instead of deserving to go in the 5-7 rounds, Mauer, Martinez and McCann should all go in rounds 2-4. Otherwise, you really shouldn’t worry too much about position scarcity.

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

While some overrate position scarcity, others pay no attention to it. Winning is likely possible with either strategy, but the object of this article is to decide just how to go about dealing with thin positions. First off, let’s identify which positions are shallow and which ones are loaded with talent. Obviously, each person’s particular league rules have an effect on this, so realize the difference between a 10-team league and a 15-team one.

Outfield – It’s top heavy, with numerous sleeper/upside options in the middle tiers. Overall, there are at least 60-70 quality options. Verdict = Deep

1B – Not as deep as usual. Surprisingly, first base is one of the thinner positions this year, as after you get through the top-13 options, only players with significant risk remain. Personally, I’m not even enamored with options 8-13 either. A smart owner will use 3B as their corner infield position, waiting to fill that out later on. Verdict = Shallow

2B – While middle infield is typically considered the toughest area to fill out each season, that’s not the case with second this year. Chase Utley separates himself, but there are 15 rock solid options and a handful more that could easily prove capable. Verdict = Deep

SS – There’s a pretty clear-cut top-7, and one or two from that tier have typically been falling even into the fourth round, making a great value pick. The next tier (8-13) is a solid yet not without risk group. After that, you’re reaching. Verdict = Somewhat Shallow

3B – There’s a clear-cut top-3, and then a clear-cut 2nd tier. Options 7-15 will differ on almost every single cheat sheet, but all come with big reward/risk. Since another 10 options exist as passable CI starters even after that, third base is about as deep as it gets. Don’t pigeon hole yourself and take two early, as that blocks your ability to fill it out with value later on. Verdict = Very Deep

Catcher – In a two-catcher format, Joe Mauer has been undervalued in most leagues. In those formats, he’s worthy of a top-20 pick. In 1-catcher formats, it’s not nearly as big of a deal, since 12 solid options exist. Still, in those 2-C leagues, you better not wait, because options 18-30 are pretty terrible. Remember, production isn’t always just production:

Catcher #1 25 HRs
Catcher #2 15 HRs
Outfielder #1 40 HRs
Outfielders#2 35 HRs

In this example, catcher #1 is obviously the first pick, despite hitting 15 fewer HRs than Outfielder #1.

Relief Pitchers – Do yourself a favor and wait on the closers run. If you’re drafting for saves before round 5, you’re doing a great disservice to yourself. Not only is the “saves” category the most volatile and unpredictable category, but about 30% of this position won’t finish there at season’s end. Also, drafting a starting pitcher contributes about 2.5-3 times as much to your team as a RP, since that’s how many more innings they hurl. Verdict – Wait, it’s deep enough

Starting Pitchers – This very much so depends on your league format. If you have a 1250 innings cap, you can probably afford to wait a few rounds before taking a SP. Starting pitchers are underrated in general, but in that format, taking five and some RPs should be enough to reach the innings cap. In leagues that allow a bigger innings max, SPs become even more valuable. Remember, in an 1800 innings cap league with 14 starting offensive players, a SP will count for about 1/8 of your pitching stats while an offensive player counts for 1/14. While many sneaky, bottom tier options exist this year, don’t miss the boat early on, as plenty of upper echelon hurlers are falling into the middle rounds. Verdict = Not Deep

In summation, going crazy and drafting Chase Utley over Albert Pujols is obviously wrong, but position scarcity is a very real thing and must be accounted for. When drafting, take a look at how many options that you would be comfortable with inserting into your starting lineup remain at each position. If very few remain at SS but plenty do at OF, use that as a determining factor if you’re deciding between Edgar Renteria and Magglio Ordonez, even if you think Mags is going to put up slightly better numbers.

Good position scarcity targets:
Round 1 – Chase Utley.
Round 2 – Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez (SBs are a category scarcity) and Joe Mauer (if 2-C league).
Round 3 – Derrek Lee
Rounds 4-7 – Starting Pitchers. Think Jake Peavy (ADP=46) and John Smoltz (ADP=69).
Later Rounds – Fill out relief pitching, outfield and 3B/CI.

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

1. Francisco Rodriguez – You really can’t go wrong with either Nathan or K-Rod as the first closer off the board, but I’m never one to chase saves early on in drafts. Rodriguez battles Ben Sheets for the honor of best curveball in the game.
2. Joe Nathan – Think Brian Sabean wants a mulligan on that Liriano/Nathan/Bonser for Pierzynksi trade? Last year’s 0.79 WHIP was flat-out ridiculous.
3. Mariano Rivera – Still going strong. While he won’t help out in Ks like other elite closers, remember, Rivera is pitching for a contract this season.
4. Billy Wagner – Expect his WHIP to return to the sub-1.00 level this year.
5. B.J. Ryan – There isn’t a bigger mismatch in baseball than a left-handed hitter with B.J. Ryan on the mound. They hit .120 against him last year.

6. Huston Street – After an unbelievable rookie campaign, Street predictably fell back to earth last year. Still, his K:BB ratio actually improved (67:13), and he’s a fine target in the middle rounds.
7. J.J. Putz – Where did that come from? Putz always had the stuff, but his 100 MPH fastball was too straight, resulting in too many long balls. He put it all together last year, and a run as a dominant, top tier closer looks to be in the cards.
8. Chad Cordero – The actual “saves” category is volatile, so it’s best not to read into that very much. His nickname is The Chief, and he wears a flat bill, what’s not to like?
9. Chris Ray – Posting a 1.29 ERA over the final two months of the season last year, Ray is officially an upper-tier closer.
10. Trevor Hoffman – Pitching in Petco and the NL West has masked a drop in velocity, but that changeup is as good as ever. Since he’s 39 years old, there is some risk involved.
11. Tom Gordon – It’s hard to figure out how his ERA and WHIP rose considerably last year after switching from pitching in the AL East to the NL East. Chalk it up to the shoulder ailment he suffered, and expect an ERA drop back into the 2.80 range, just as long as the veteran’s body cooperates.

12. Bobby Jenks – There’s cause for concern. Jenks had a 2.83 ERA and 1.11 WHIP before the All-Star break last year but a 5.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP after it. Now, he’s suffering from shoulder tightness this spring. Bid cautiously.
13. Francisco Cordero – While it’s possible Derrick Turnbow reemerges as a late-inning threat, Cordero excelled once moving to the Senior Circuit. After losing the closer’s job in Texas, Cordero posted a 1.69 ERA and 30 Ks in just 26 2/3 innings in a Brewers’ uniform. He’s never been a big help in WHIP, however.
14. Brad Lidge – Is the Albert Pujols NLCS homer really going to ruin his career? A remarkable 104 Ks over 75 innings last season suggests his electric stuff is still there, but 10 HRs allowed and 36 walks indicate location remains a big problem. Lidge brings huge upside and significant risk. He could easily lose his job.
15. Brian Fuentes – However Coors Field plays this year, Fuentes has proven the ability to succeed there.
16. Takashi Saito – He was the best reliever in the National League last season, and it wasn’t even really that close. Pacing the league in strikeouts out of the pen, Saito deserved more ROY consideration. While imports sometimes fail the second time around the league, Saito will probably only regress so much. While it’s nice Eric Gagne isn’t lurking over his shoulder, Jonathan Broxton looms.
17. Bob Wickman – The downside is a lack of Ks and two good alternatives (Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano) lurk in the Braves’ pen. The upside is he’s currently locked in the role, at least for this year, and he posted a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings after joining Atlanta last year. The NL will prolong both his career and fantasy relevance.
18. Octavio Dotel – Forget about the last two years. Dotel is only now finally back to full strength, has a good hold on Kansas City’s closer’s role and has averaged 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings throughout his career. Even the worst team in baseball produces 35-45 save opportunities.
19. Jose Valverde – He’s dominant. He’s terrible. The only thing consistent about Valverde is his inconsistency. Still, it’s hard not to get excited about his peripherals (11.7 Ks per nine innings in his career). During the second half of last season, he posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, continuing his career-long trend of pitching better after the All-Star break. He has quite a bit of upside for where he’s typically being drafted, making him a fine gamble.
20. Jason Isringhausen – If health permits, he could be a bargain.

21. Eric Gagne – It remains to be seen just how effective Gagne can be with such a drastic decrease in velocity. His devastating changeup will help keep him successful, but since he remains an injury risk and now pitches at Ameriquest Field in the AL, his days as a dominant closer are probably over.
22. Kerry Wood – Wood can likely be drafted later than this ranking suggests, especially considering the fact Ryan Dempster is currently atop the Cubs’ bullpen depth chart. The thing is, Dempster isn’t anything special, and Kerry Wood has a better chance at staying healthy with a move to the pen. If he’s on his game, a switch to the closer’s role is inevitable. I’m a sucker for upside.
23. Todd Jones – The anti-Kerry Wood. Boring yet steady, Jones is 39 years old and has a better pitcher in Joel Zumaya setting him up. If Jones lasts the entire year in the closer’s role, it would be an upset.
24. Salomon Torres – Torres posted a tidy 3.28 ERA last year, but his 1.46 WHIP suggests he was lucky. Coming off a season in which he made the second most appearances in MLB history (he’s eclipsed 90 innings in each of the past three years), fatigue is a concern as well. Matt Capps might already be the better pitcher.
25. Armando Benitez – His arthritic knees are a legitimate concern. So is his inconsistency when on the mound. Unless he falls extremely late, it’s best to let someone else bid here, while you take Brian Wilson a few rounds later. I’d put the odds that Wilson finishes with more saves than Benitez this season at 50-50.
26. Joe Borowski – Yawn. It’s safe to say that Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera and Fausto Carmona will all finish the year as better pitchers than Borowski.

27. Joel Pineiro
28. Seth McClung
29. David Weathers
30. Brian Wilson
31. Joel Zumaya
32. Kevin Gregg

33. Ryan Dempster
34. Taylor Tankersley
35. Akinori Otsuka
36. Jonathan Broxton
37. Scot Shields
38. Bob Howry
39. Scott Linebrink
40. Rafael Soriano

By Dalton Del Don - Senior Writer

With free agency starting today, it’s as good as time as any to take a quick look around the National Football League.

At this point, it would be an upset if Troy Smith is a first day selection. Or even if he makes an NFL team out of camp, for that matter.

Meet Dwayne Jarrett - The second coming of Mike Williams.

You heard it here first, if the Raiders take JaMarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson they’ll be sorry.

The most underrated story of the offseason so far has to be the fact that Dallas Clark was kicked out of a high school girls basketball game for berating the refs.

Thomas Jones wants a trade, Corey Dillon is gone and Dominic Rhodes got a DUI - goodbye pesky RBBC.

Speaking of Rhodes, he rivals Clark as the best offseason story, after all, he did pee himself while sitting in a cop car. The Colts aren’t messing around when it comes to celebrating that championship.

One committee that wasn’t squashed, however, was Jacksonville’s, as Fred Taylor reworked his deal to ensure at least one more year in a Jags’ uniform. I was ready to pick MJD in the top-8 next year if Fragile Fred left, but now, he certainly falls. Still, it would be hard not to consider Jones-Drew as a second round pick.

Apparently, Tom Brady’s protection problems extend into the offseason as well.

Good to know Tony Romo is officially over his playoff fiasco - he was recently spotted singing Karaoke (Journey’s “Don’t Stop Believing”) with Mr. Belding from “Saved by the Bell.” You don’t get this kind of pertinent info at ESPN, folks.

A funny thing happened to Willis McGahee on the way to stardom - he never got there. It stood to reason he’d only get better the further he was removed from major knee surgery, but if anything, he’s regressed as a football player. 3.8 YPC without any receiving skills simply won’t get it done. Any team that trades for him will likely be disappointed.

Randy Moss to the New England Patriots has to be the silliest of all offseason trade rumors.

Say it ain’t so, Jake the Snake.

Must (not) see TV - Peyton Manning to host Saturday Night Live March 24.

The Denver Broncos have done it again, absolutely robbing the Lions and Matt Millen in the Tatum Bell for Dre Bly deal. Bell isn’t any good, and Bly is. Bly was on the outs either way, so it’s at least defensible in that aspect for Detroit. Also, it’s clear the Lions are worried about Kevin Jones’ status for the upcoming season.

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Who was hitting on Seikaly?! I’ll kill him! I swear!

Moving on, position scarcity isn’t a good enough reason to draft Chase Utley in the top five, Ryan Howard’s numbers are sure to regress, and Carl Crawford’s low counting stats and reliance on speed to produce scare me a bit. Therefore, with the fourth pick in our upcoming draft, I’m looking at a likely decision between Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano (I’ll take Reyes or Santana if they fall to me). While A-Rod is coming off a tumultuous, down season, Soriano put up some absolutely monster numbers and was rewarded with a spot in a high-powered lineup in a bandbox park and, oh ya, a monster contract. In choosing between two evenly matched players, the simplest way to decide is to project their respective stats and nab the guy with the better numbers. Easy enough.

Let’s start with Soriano. His numbers have nowhere to go but down, but hitting in a better park and a better lineup should mitigate those declines. And as the leadoff guy for the Cubs, he should still be expected to run a good deal. Projected line: 117/37/102/36/279

Alex Rodriguez has disappointed in two out of his three years in pinstripes. However, a full season of Bobby Abreu in the lineup should enable A-Rod to approach his gaudy 2005 numbers. Projected line: 121/42/134/16/302

So the question remains, are Soriano’s 20 extra SBs worth more than the extra 25 runs/RBI, 5 home runs and 20+ points in average? It’s a close call, but I would say so.