Archive for May, 2007

My Top 14

Monday, May 7th, 2007

By Robby Wellington - Staff Writer

Dalton’s talk of football has me fired up for my favorite fantasy sport, only four short months away. Consequently, I’ve thrown together a list of my top 14 players coming into the 2007 season.

1. LT – I strongly believe that whoever gets the No. 1 pick this year shouldn’t get a 2nd round pick. Seriously.

2. Steven Jackson – My man Action Jackson came up huge for me last year and should be able to approach last season’s big totals.

3. Joseph Addai – This is the first year of many where Addai puts up Edge James numbers.

4. Laurence Maroney – Clearly I’m pretty damn high on Maroney this year. The Pats offense is going to be scary good and Maroney is going to be cashing in.

5. Larry Johnson – The Chiefs offense is crumbling, and LJ isn’t going to get a lot of help.

6. Frank Gore – Gore is awesome, but the 49ers are still the 49ers.

7. Brian Westbrook – Every year I pass on Westbrook and every year I regret it. The man is legit.

8. Willie Parker – Fast Willie is fast becoming a good, safe first round pick.

9. Shaun Alexander – I couldn’t list the former MVP any lower.

10. Cedric Benson – Being the man in Chicago should enable Benson to put up top-10 fantasy numbers.

11. Travis Henry – If I didn’t know that Shananighan would have me scrambling to pick up Joe Jerkoff out of No-Name State at least a few times before the season starts, I’d have Henry at No. 7.

12. Rudi Johnson – Sometimes 1,300 yards and 12 TDs is better than upside.

13. Reggie Bush – Bush’s touches should go up this year, as should his number of big plays.

14. Willis McGahee – A change in scenery should lead to a decent spike in production for McGahee.

Honorable Mention (in order) - Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith.

Thoughts on Lincecum and More

Monday, May 7th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don - Senior Writer

After I endlessly hyped him, Lincecum didn’t exactly pitch a gem during his debut Sunday night. In fact, he allowed more runs after facing two batters in the majors than he did during five starts at Triple-A. Still, there’s a lot to be encouraged about. The first inning, two-run homer was extremely wind-aided, and giving up a blast to Ryan Howard is nothing to be ashamed of, despite his struggles so far this year. Also, that obstruction call was about as bad as blown calls get.

Nevertheless, Lincecum wasn’t very sharp, throwing just 53 of his 100 pitches for strikes. Also, for some reason he seemed to leave his curveball in the bullpen, as he threw fastballs almost exclusively. Now, those 95-97 MPH heaters with movement were impressive, but make no mistake, the curve is by far his best pitch.

I’m not in the least bit worried about the lackluster debut, but what I am concerned about is if Lincecum doesn’t pitch well next start, which happens to come in Coors Field, and Brian Sabean turns back to Russ Ortiz. Judging by the fans reaction and likely attendance increase, that scenario seems unlikely. At least I hope.

I knew Lincecum could pitch, but I was unaware of his batting prowess. Good God. There’s a chance he finishes with a .000 batting average this season. Also, the guy doesn’t look a day over 17 years old. There’s no way he’s shaved yet. Anyway, if you can find a sucker in your league that panics over one start, go make an offer for “The Franchise.”

Watched the Mayweather/De La Hoya fight over the weekend, and it’s safe to say the bout didn’t save boxing. While I’ve seen worse, the fight was mostly lackluster, with a few decent rounds mixed in. De La Hoya certainly made it closer than anticipated, but Mayweather for sure deserved the decision. I could watch Larry Merchant interview Mayweather all day long. It’s just too bad there was more blood in the Phoenix Suns/San Antonio Spurs game than the boxing match.

Round 2 Preview

Sunday, May 6th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Chicago Bulls (5) vs. Detroit Pistons (1)

Notes: The Bulls made me look bad by easily handling a depleted Heat team but now have to face the best squad in the Eastern Conference. Expect the series to be more competitive than Game 1 suggested, but Detroit ultimately moves on. Pistons 4-2.

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Phoenix Suns (2)

Notes: You might as well consider this the NBA Finals, because the winner of this series is almost certainly going to win the whole thing. A Suns vs. Warriors matchup in the Western Conference Finals would be a fans dream, conjuring up thoughts of 152-148 type games. Unfortunately, the Spurs match up pretty well against Phoenix, and although they’ll have to win a game on the road, they still look like the best team in basketball. Spurs 4-3.

New Jersey Nets (6) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

Notes: The Cavs won the regular season series 2-1 by virtue of taking both games played in Cleveland, so homecourt advantage does figure to matter here. Still, the Cavs just aren’t that good, and they probably don’t even realize the postseason has started yet after getting the injury-ravaged Wizards in Round 1. The Nets, meanwhile, have picked the right time to play their best basketball of the season. Their roll continues. Nets 4-2.

Golden State Warriors (8) vs. Utah Jazz (4)

Notes: The Warriors shocked the world, and the Jazz prevented Tracy McGrady from winning his first postseason series. While the Warriors enter more rested, one wonders if the crowd surfing, extended celebration after the Dallas win in Game 6 means the team is already satisfied with their postseason performance. Baron Davis’ hamstring injury is huge, as he’ll be the most important player on the court during this series. Both teams are very tough at home and split the season series 2-2. Golden State defended the pick and roll extremely well against Dallas, since they have so many interchangeable parts on defense, which should come in handy against Utah’s similar offense. Assuming they realize they haven’t won the NBA Finals yet, Golden State will remain the hottest team in the game. Warriors 4-2.

Mailbag

Sunday, May 6th, 2007

Too busy still celebrating the Warriors win and in too much anticipation for Tim Lincecum’s debut Sunday night for a long article this weekend, so here’s another mailbag. Remember, e-mail seven3d@aol.com for future inquiries or for some good old-fashioned hate mail.

Todd asks:

Would you drop Raul Ibanez for Hunter Pence? (standard Yahoo 5×5 league)

RotoScoop says:

Tough question. Ibanez played out of his mind last season; an obvious career-year at age 35 meant a regression this season was highly likely. While I think he will turn it around (he had a very good spring, after all), he probably will fall short of last year’s numbers by a decent margin. Pence needs to hit immediately or he runs the risk of getting sent back down since Houston isn’t short of options (Chris Burke). My assessment: Ibanez is the safer choice, and Pence is the one with more upside. Personally, I’d prefer Pence, but it’s a close call.

Chris asks:

Just how good is Billy Butler going to be? I have him in a keeper league and am getting trade offers left and right…some are pretty huge. What is his offensive cap? Have the opportunity to trade him potentially for Papelbon, or potentially for Dice-K and Justin Upton (I throw in draft picks in that scenario)…Thanks!

RotoScoop says:

I would expect 15-20 homers from him if he kept an everyday job from here on out, but that’s not even guaranteed at this point. He’ll probably grow into a 30-35 homer type in the future, but I’d have to take a long look at those offers if I were you. I would do the Dice-K and Upton for Butler deal. Upton may take more patience, but I like his long-term potential more than Butler, and you’d also be getting Dice-K, who should turn it around. I’d do that deal.

Jim asks:

I can get Abreu & Maddux for Kelly Johnson and Dan Haren. This deal isn’t really about needs for me - I can put Figgins in at 2b to replace Johnson and I can find a spot for Abreu. So, does this deal make any sense? Would you do it?

RotoScoop says:

Yes, I’d do it. While I really like Kelly Johnson and Haren, Maddux will put up quality numbers in SD, and Abreu is by far the most valuable fantasy property of the group. Hitting third in that Yankee lineup is quite nice. Despite the slow start (he didn’t play much during spring b/c of the oblique injury, so just now is he were everyone else started the season), he could finish as a top-10 offensive player in fantasy. It’s an extremely even trade though, and if you think Haren can continue pitching like a top-5 starter, then it’s fine to reject it. Johnson is going to score 120 runs if he stays healthy.

Timmy Time

Friday, May 4th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Not much else can be said at this point, but suffice it to say, I’m pleased with the decision to finally call up Tim Lincecum. With a roster chalk full of the elderly, and one, maybe two great years left of Barry Bonds, the Giants have a short window of opportunity, and the 29 innings pitched by Russ Ortiz this year were 29 too many. It’s sad that it took an injury (which appears to be legit) to make the switch happen – in what other profession does seniority beat out performance by this much? With Lincecum being smallish in build and carrying health concerns, every pitch he threw in Triple-A was a waste; after all, he’s older than Matt Cain for crying out loud, Lincecum needed to be in the majors yesterday.

Lincecum isn’t just the best prospect in baseball – he’s one of the best in recent memory. The numbers are staggering: 4-0, 0.29 ERA, 12 hits allowed in 31 innings, 46 strikeouts. The fact his first start will come during a nationally televised game is fitting. Lincecum, aka “The Franchise,” aka “Seabiscuit,” is no doubt long gone in most fantasy leagues. To put it in perspective – if I had all $100 left of my FAAB, I’d put in a $100 bid on Lincecum. There simply won’t be another free agent pick up this year that even resembles the type of immediate impact he’ll have.

As a Giants’ fan, and I must be considered a fairly serious one after going to Thursday night’s game and sitting through a rain-filled, 3 hour and 47 minute debacle at AT&T Park, I still admit the team is unlikely to make the playoffs. Still, a top-3 of Lincecum, Cain and Zito would be tough to beat in a short-game series. But my hopes for Lincecum don’t stem purely from being an SF fan, this kid is legit, and he’ll prove it with a gem Sunday night. And after that he’ll walk on water and then turn the water into wine.

More on the Mocks

Thursday, May 3rd, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I’m aware that it just turned May and baseball is in full effect, but I recently participated in not one, but two fantasy football drafts. The first was an industry league, and my team can be found here. The second was for RotoWire’s magazine. The way I see it, it’s never too early to talk some fantasy football, is it? Here are some thoughts after completing the two drafts:

People like Shaun Alexander a whole lot more than I do. In both leagues, he went No. 5 overall. He’s my 14th ranked running back. Supposedly, the injury wasn’t due to wear and tear, and he didn’t get overworked last year for a change, but history doesn’t bode well for guys his age and with his mileage. Also, Seattle’s offense isn’t even good anymore. Still, he could be a poor running back and produce 1,100 yards and 13 TDs since he’ll get almost all of the carries, so he’s not a terrible pick. I just like guys with more upside better. When you don’t have any receiving stats to fall back on, you better average more than 3.6 YPC.

Joseph Addai went No. 3 overall in the RotoWire mock. I commend the aggressiveness, but I probably don’t have the guts to take him over Larry Johnson and Frank Gore. Since no one reading this could even name Addai’s backup, and Indy’s offense is the best in the league, Addai has a great chance at entering next year as the consensus top overall pick. I have him ranked No. 5 overall, but feel free to reach if you want.

Coming off a 416-carry season worries me. But playing in Herm Edwards’ predictable offense with no wide receivers and terrible quarterback play scares me even more. I have moved Frank Gore ahead of Larry Johnson on my draft board.

When you get past the top-5 (LT, S-Jax, Gore, LJ, Addai), I’m taking Laurence Maroney at No. 6. I’m chalking up his late season swoon last year to the rookie wall and a severe shoulder injury that was concealed at the time. When right, he looked about as impressive as any other runner in the league. With Corey Dillon jettisoned, and the passing offense improving exponentially with Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker on board, Maroney won’t be seeing too many 8-man boxes, and the Pats will be playing with the lead an awful lot. Just because guys like Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook and Willie Parker had better seasons last year, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take Maroney ahead of them this year.

I like Travis Henry (can’t believe Denver didn’t draft another back), Clinton Portis, Maurice-Jones Drew and Reggie Bush to round out the end of the first round and beginning of the second, but after the top-14 RBs, I think it’s better to go with a wideout. Everyone always preaches RBs, but I’ve probably never been in a draft where 15 straight were immediately taken like in the industry league. I’d rather Steve Smith than question marks like Willis McGahee, Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown.

I have Vince Young ranked No. 4 on my QB list but was able to get him in Round 6 during both leagues. I don’t care how ugly his release is; he’s going to run wild and will be a fantasy monster as soon as this year. Madden curse be damned. I was also able to nab Matt Leinart in Round 10 in both leagues. If Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both universally ranked as top-10 WRs, then how can Leinart not put up big numbers?

Some other mid to late round picks I like: Vernon Davis, Drew Bennett, Devery Henderson, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Jackson, Chris Henry (RB) and Greg Jennings.

The two craziest picks I saw were made by the same team: he took Ahman Green in the second round, and then followed that up by selecting LaMont Jordan in Round 4. I’d rather Michael Bush.

The Scoop

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2007

Khalil Greene may only be batting .257 on the year, but he also has 17 extra base hits. He’s yet to prove the ability to remain healthy, but Greene can be a very useful middle infielder if used properly; for his career, he has an .857 OPS on the road and a .656 OPS at home. This year, it’s a .908 OPS away from home and a .696 OPS at Petco Park.

Albert Pujols was awarded a walk on the third ball of the at-bat Monday night.

Scott Olsen may be pitching poorly, but at least he’s 6-for-10 at the plate.

David Wright has drawn a walk in 10 consecutive games this season, totaling 16 on the year. While he’s doing an excellent job of getting on base, the .372 slugging percentage is unacceptable. He didn’t hit a homer during April.

Meanwhile, teammate Carlos Beltran is having one of the best seasons few are talking about. He has a .515/.579/.788 line against lefties.

I’m a little worried about my boy Ben Sheets. The 4.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP aren’t terrible, but Sheets simply isn’t striking guys out at even close to his usual clip. He’s continued his proneness to giving up the long ball, already surrendering five homers in just 36 innings pitched. He’s also walked more than half of last year’s total in 70 fewer innings. But the most glaring statistic is the paltry 16 Ks. If he doesn’t turn that around soon, expect news of an injury to crop up soon thereafter.

Chipper Jones is the NL’s MVP through one month of the season. It’s still doubtful he plays in more than 140 games this season, but there’s no questioning his ability in the batter’s box. Jones has 10 homers, with a 1.110 OPS and 16:18 K:BB ratio, helping my Braves’ prediction to make the playoffs look good so far.

Hunter Pence needs to be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. He put up monstrous spring numbers and is the club’s best prospect. 15 homers and 10 steals are both reachable from here on out.

Jose Reyes in on pace for 110 steals this season.

Richie Sexson has 11 hits in 73 at-bats this year. Of those 11 hits, just one has gone for a single. That’s right, he has a 91 percent XBH rate.

The Warriors blew it Tuesday night. Up 112-103 with three minutes left, how do you end the game on a 0-15 run? Talk about not being able to put a team away; that’s taking it to a whole different level. The Mavs’ backs were against the wall, but give the No. 1 seed an inch, and they just might take a series. Oracle Arena may have something to say about that come Thursday night. When Baron Davis is healthy and motivated (not often), there isn’t a point guard other than Steve Nash that I’d rather have.

Mock Draft Results

Tuesday, May 1st, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I participated in a fantasy football industry mock draft last night. Click here for the results, which are going to be in RotoWorld’s fantasy football magazine. I represented RotoWire and think I came out pretty good. I’ll go over the draft results in greater detail in the next day or so, but for now, here’s my roster:

QB Vince Young
RB Joseph Addai
RB Marshawn Lynch
WR Steve Smith
WR Javon Walker
WR Plaxico Burress
TE Vernon Davis
K Stephen Gostkowski
D San Diego Chargers

BENCH
QB Matt Leinart
WR Bernard Berrian
WR Devery Henderson
WR Brandon Marshall
RB Michael Bush
TE Tony Scheffler