Sabermetrics

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I was talking with a couple of Giants fans the other day, and it occurred to me just how oblivious the average baseball fan can be. One of these guys watches San Francisco play every single night yet had never heard the term OPS. When I described the statistic to him, he responded with, “I don’t like that stat because it punishes the little guy.” Well, he’s right, but that’s because the little guy just isn’t very valuable in real baseball. While stats like OPS could do a better job of incorporating stolen bases – they can’t be completely ignored – far too many teams, let alone casual fans, view the speedy leadoff types with too much fever.

My fellow Giants fan went on saying how much he missed Mike Matheny, because he was a “gamer” and a “great team and locker room guy.” I couldn’t change this guy’s opinion, as the false notion of team chemistry clearly outweighed the lifetime .637 OPS. Now, defense and the ability to handle a pitching staff need to be accounted for, but whether the person is likeable or not shouldn’t be. In an ideal world, players wouldn’t be threatening the lives of their wife and kids, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t sign Barry Bonds purely because he’s a prick.

It’s no coincidence winning teams often deemphasize stolen bases. This happens not necessarily because the coach rarely gives the green light in fear of giving up an out, but rather because the roster is devoid of the “gritty speedster” who is such a good locker room guy. Steals can wreak havoc and effectively distract a pitcher on the mound, but employing a poor on-base guy simply because he’s fast happens far too frequently (see: Duffy, Chris). There’s some evidence to back up these claims that fly in the face of traditionalists: the teams with the three best OBPs this year – Boston (.363), Cleveland (.361) and the Mets (.349) also just happen to have the three best records in baseball.

I guess I shouldn’t chastise the casual fan when the media is as guilty as anyone else, continuously rewarding players with MVP trophies based on the most unimportant criteria. It happened last year with Ryan Howard and Justin Morneau, with RBI totals apparently the deciding factor. And it happens almost every year with pitchers, as win totals often decide the Cy Young winner, with the second worst depiction of pitching, ERA, being the next factor. I don’t know about you, but I like to use stats that the player had more control over when evaluating their performance.

So the next time you hear someone say “he plays the game right” (think Joe Morgan), do me a favor and slap them across the face. We need to move past anecdotal baseball and into an era of the informed. Please join me in the cause.


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12 responses to “Sabermetrics”

  1. Todd Avatar
    Todd

    Great points – That Joe Morgan article is a real good example of a media type that just doesn’t get it. The fact he was such a good second baseman sabermetrically makes it funnier/more frustrating.

  2. john varn jr Avatar
    john varn jr

    You dead, dawg

  3. djpegleg Avatar

    I feel you. I tried to get one past the wife the other day, saying I was laughing at what Joe Morgan had said, and not at what she had just done. She just gave me the eye and said “Now I know you’re lying. If it had been anyone else but Joe Morgan I might have believed you.” That’s because I’m usually yelling expletives at the screen whenever that clown is saying something stupid, which, y’know is pretty much always.

    While I’m (one of) the converted, preaching the gospel of the OBP, I have to say that I hate OPS as a stat. Marginally in real life, but completely in fantasy. It’s a horrible stat to use in rotisserie baseball because all it does is abnormally boost the value of power guys rewarding them twice (HR/RBI and then OPS as well). We tried it one year and then switched to OBP, which, of course, everyone loves. Hmmm, OBP.

  4. E. Dukes Avatar
    E. Dukes

    I ain’t even bullshittin. Your kids too, dawg.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    djpegleg – I agree, OPS is a better application in real baseball than in the fantasy aspect. Using that as a category would remove the SB part, which is a big part of the strategy involved. I only play in leagues that use avg. not OBP, but I hope to change that in the future. That’s pretty funny about the Joe Morgan comment.

  6. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    First off, what is wrong with Howard or Morneu winning the MVP last year?
    Also, I cant’ believe that you pass over ERA as so unimportant. I realize that you can look at a pitchers peripherals and that usually gives a better view of that players skill and performance, but ERA and Wins are the bottom line for pitchers, how many runs were allowed with you on the mound, and how many games did you win.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Albert Pujols was the better hitter last year is the main reason I had a problem with R. Howard winning. I would have voted for Mauer or Santana over Morneau, but since there wasn’t a great candidate, I could stomach the AL pick somewhat.

    I shouldn’t have been as flippant with my ERA remark. It is an indication of the pitcher’s ability. Guys like Dave Bush have great peripherals but a poor ERA b/c he can’t pitch with baserunners on, and that hurts his ERA severely, and that means he’s just not very good. That said, ERA is also fairly dependent on things like team defense, while strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed are not. Again, ERA is important – I take that part back.

    But wins, I think that stat is pretty much worthless. Wins are dependent on the team’s offense, defense (even more so b/c of unearned runs) and bullpen. There’s so much that the pitcher has no control over whatsoever. Now, if the SP is always only lasting six innings opposed to going deeper into games, then there’s an argument to be made there. But for the most part, “wins” are way overrated. Two years ago Bartolo Colon beat out Johan Santana b/c he had five more “wins” than Johan Santana. Ignoring all the peripherals which Santana clearly had an advantage in, the thing that killed me was that the Twins actually had MORE VICTORIES (better record) than the Angels did when both guys started for their respective teams. But again, Colon finished with 5 more Ws, so he took home the hardware.

  8. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    I agree with you on that one… wins are way overrated, and santana got snubbed that year. But I do think that wins are important. What would you think about santana vs a guy with a bob welch year (27 wins)?

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    27 wins would be pretty hard to ignore, even from a snobby peripheral guy like myself. Speaking of which, his K/BB ratio was a well below average 127/77 that year! That said, 238 innings is a real good amount, meaning he left less up to chance with the bullpen, so there’s a reason he won so many games. There was no doubt plenty of luck involved there, but a statistical anomaly that great probably did deserve the Cy Young.

  10. djpegleg Avatar

    You can’t predict Wins and ERA (like you’ve stated) is not in the pitcher’s control (completely). Personally, I’m all about Shandler’s PQS: 5/4 points equals dominance, 3 means an average start and 2/1/0 equals disaster:

    1pt for 6 or more innings pitched [0 pts for any start less than 5 innings]
    1pt if H

  11. djpegleg Avatar

    …I’m going to try this again, I think my mathematic equations freaked out the system…

    You can’t predict Wins and ERA (like you’ve stated) is not in the pitcher’s control (completely). Personally, I’m all about Shandler’s PQS: 5/4 points equals dominance, 3 means an average start and 2/1/0 equals disaster:

    1pt for 6 or more innings pitched [0 pts for any start less than 5 innings]
    1pt if hits is less than or equal to Innings Pitched
    1pt if Innings pitched minus Strikeouts is less than 2
    1pt for twice as many Strikeouts as Base on Balls.
    1pt for allowing no more than one HR

    It may not mean anything in a Cy Young or MVP race, but it will be a completely luck free look at any given pitcher’s performance, and an excellent tool for tracking a pitcher throughout the year.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I like it djpegleg. Good formula, and a unique/valuable way of evaluating pitching performances.

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