Archive for June, 2007

Catching Up

Monday, June 11th, 2007

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

Catchers always seem to be a forgotten position in fantasy baseball, primarily because most of them just aren’t any good.  I’ve identified the seven guys that matter at the position, ranking them in projected fantasy value from here on out.

1. Victor Martinez – Martinez is a first baseman playing behind the plate, this generation’s Mike Piazza.
2. Russell Martin – 10 steals goes a long way in fantasy baseball and goes even further when a catcher gets them.  20/20 out of the catcher spot is pretty special, and I would rather have Martin from here on out than Mauer.
3. Joe Mauer – Mauer’s phenomenal batting average and helpful steal totals are deadened by low home run totals.  For a big guy who is supposedly the greatest athlete of all time, Mauer has a surprising lack of power.  Still, he’s a stud and probably can’t be “bought low” from his owner.
4. Brian McCann – A huge disappointment, McCann is still the clearcut No. 4 catcher right now.  He should right the ship a bit in the second half and show that last year wasn’t a complete aberration.
5. Jorge Posada – 358?!  Where did this come from?  While Posada’s average should fall 60-70 points over the rest of the year, he is hitting in the best lineup in baseball.
6. Kenji Johjima – Kenji seems to have progressed a bit from a solid rookie campaign into an unspectacular but solid second-tier guy.
7. Ivan Rodriguez – I-Rod just keeps on plugging away, doing some damage in the middle of the Tigers’ solid lineup.  His 0-2 in steals this year is a bit worrisome though.

Honestly, if you don’t own one of these seven guys, then you’re probably playing a waiver-wire level guy.  I don’t see much difference between Jason Varitek, Mike Napoli, John Buck, Bengie Molina, Michael Barrett, Mike Piazza, Johnny Estrada, etc…  If you have the time and energy for it, you’re best off starting whichever one of these catchers is hot and has a favorable matchup on a day-to-day basis.  Or you can just be like me, grab Jason Varitek and forget about the position for the rest of the year.

Mailbag

Saturday, June 9th, 2007

E-mail seven3d@aol.com for future inquiries/hate mail.

Patrick asks:

Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson this season?

RotoScoop says:

Randy Johnson. Both are injury risks, but Johnson has a huge advantage pitching in the NL West opposed to the AL East. The 61/8 K/BB ratio over 47.2 innings so far this year suggests Johnson can still dominate. Clemens will get wins, but his ERA won’t look like it did when in Houston now back in the AL.

Billy asks:

Hi, I am in a 12-team 5 keeper league. I have to determine 5 keepers for the upcoming season. I got 4 sure things but cannot decide on the 5th. LT, Sjax, Palmer and Fitzgerald are no brainers but who to choose as the 5th. Portis, Brandon Jacobs, Driver, or V Davis?

RotoScoop says:

Great team, you look loaded. I am concerned over Portis’ health issues and the emergence of Ladell Betts, but he’d still be the guy I’d keep here. I like V. Davis a lot, but you’ve got to keep a back if possible. Jacobs should score double-digit TDs, but he isn’t a threat in the passing game and has never proven he can carry the full load. Portis may actually have fresher legs coming off a season that saw his carries limited, and he’ll still get plenty of touches, regardless of Betts’ presence. Remember, Portis was the consensus 4th overall pick in most fantasy leagues last year before the separated shoulder. The Redskins offense should only be better with Campbell instead of Brunell as well.

Jeff asks:

I do not have room for Gathright but want to make room. My choices are to trade either Pena $10, Monroe $10, or Bradley at $4. I am leaning towards Bradley. What should I take for him and expect to get? A minor leaguer? I think I can get Gathright for a $15 bid. Should I just cut Bradley? I hate to do that though. I am getting tired of the injuries even though he is talented. I do not want to miss out on Gathright if he really has figured it out since we are AL only. If he is going to stick in KC and can hit 300 with 50 sb, that is a $25 plus dollar player going into next yr. What do you suggest I do?

RotoScoop says:

Throw Bradley’s name out there, see if you can get anything in return (a case of beer?), and if not, dump him. I like his talent as well, but at some point you’ve just got to cut your losses. He’s taking “injury-prone” to a whole nother level. Mark Prior thinks Bradley is brittle. And I totally agree, Gathright has $25 upside. He could steal 30-35 bases from here on out this season. He’s worth a high FAAB bid.

Player Spotlight – Bobby Abreu

Friday, June 8th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Bobby Abreu entered the 2005 All-Star break with 18 homers. After winning the home run derby (and setting a record in the process), he has since hit just 24 longballs over the next 1,035 at-bats. Despite the short porch, he has zero big flies at home during 2007. Whether it is body type, steroid abuse or something else, it’s clear that Abreu’s power is in dramatic decline, despite being just 33 years old. Maybe that whole fiasco with his wife is partially to blame. Nevertheless, he still has his uses.

So far this season, Abreu has been to the plate with 194 runners on base, which is the fourth most in all of baseball. Also, let’s not forget that he missed spring training with an oblique injury, so a sluggish April was to be expected. He’s 12-for-25 during June, with multiple hits in five of his last seven games, so the opportunity to buy low is quickly dissipating. He’ll be such a help in runs and RBI (and solid in SBs) that he’s still awful close to the top tier of fantasy outfielders, despite the power outage.

Player Spotlight – Joey Gathright

Thursday, June 7th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

When Joey Gathright was recalled Wednesday, he was worth stashing away if you had an open roster spot on your bench. After his first two games back, he’s now a viable option for those even in shallow leagues. Gathright has proven time and again that he’s a capable player in the minors, but that has yet to translate into the big leagues after various stops in Tampa Bay and Kansas City. After hitting .328/.450/.392 with 21 steals in 186 at-bats for Triple-A Omaha, Gathright was finally given another chance with the Royals. He was initially thought to be used a fourth outfielder, but after a 5-for-7 start, including two stolen bases, his role may be expanded immediately. Save for maybe his family, not too many people are going to lose sleep if Emil Brown rides the pine.

Gathright obviously doesn’t have much power, but he can get on base at a decent enough clip, sporting a terrific 21/34 K/BB ratio in the minors this season. A hot start is the best case scenario, as it would not only lead to more at-bats, but hopefully a move atop the order as well. With stolen bases at a premium, Gathright is a worthy fantasy outfielder as long as he remains in KC’s lineup. He has the ability to steal 30 bases from here on out. He could lose playing time with his first slump, so he doesn’t come without risk, but Gathright’s upside is worthy of using a top waiver priority right now. After all, he is the man.

NBA Finals Preview

Thursday, June 7th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. San Antonio Spurs

Comments: In 16 playoff games, LeBron James has averaged 25.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.3 dimes, with an assist to turnover ratio of 132/43. While the Pistons may have made the NBA Finals more competitive, at least there’s some star power, and James makes the series eminently more watchable. The Spurs are the NBA’s best team, and the only real debate here is whether the series lasts four, five or six games. But the fact that it took James just four seasons to take a moribund franchise into the finals should not be underestimated. Sure, it’s a terrible conference, but James is still just 22 years old. Bruce Bowen is a dirty great defensive player, but James cannot be guarded by one man right now. While San Antonio has tough interior defenders, James is a physical presence that the Spurs have yet to encounter during this postseason. The Cavs have won three straight contests against the Spurs, including 2-0 this season.

Cleveland also employs a pretty big interior, something underrated about their run during the playoffs. The Spurs are ultimately too sound in all aspects of the game, and the coaching matchup is one of the biggest mismatches in NBA Finals history. Manu Ginobili has rediscovered his game, and Tony Parker is a nightmare matchup for Cleveland’s backcourt. San Antonio also has homecourt, and a superstar in his own right in Tim Duncan. Duncan is trying to win his fourth NBA title already and has averaged 23.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.3 blocks, 3.1 assists and is shooting 53.9 percent from the field in the playoffs. (Do you realize that in the 2003 NBA Finals, Duncan averaged 24.2 points, 17.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 5.3 blocks?!).

Ultimately, this series probably won’t be as boring as a Detroit/San Antonio matchup would have been, and the fact James is involved makes it somewhat intriguing, but the outcome appears inevitable. The Spurs win it in a sweep.

The Scoop

Wednesday, June 6th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

The only way I could be happier with the Armando Benitez trade is if Rod Beck’s carcass was the returning player. If there was ever an addition by subtraction situation, this was it. And what a way to go out, Mando! In his first 13 seasons as a major leaguer, Benitez faced nearly 3,000 batters, spanning nearly 700 innings. In that time, he committed just two balks. Then, last Tuesday night, in a span of three batters, he balked twice in the 12th inning before giving up a game-winning home run. I’m not sure who is hated more, Armando Benitez in the Bay Area, or Barry Bonds everywhere else.

Kevin Youkilis is having quite a season for a guy not even on the All-Star ballot, with a .341 batting average and a .958 OPS. His 26.3 VORP ranks ninth best in all of baseball.

In case you haven’t noticed, Prince Fielder is having a pretty decent season this year.

Paul Byrd has twice as many wins, six, as walks, three. He’s faced 183 consecutive batters without issuing a free pass. That covers 43 consecutive innings and dates to April 26. How about a 10.3/1 K/BB ratio?

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, whose records date back to 1900, last Thursday night was the first time a major league team has lost a game without allowing an official baserunner. In a 2-0 loss to Toronto, Mark Buehrle didn’t walk a batter, and the only two hits he surrendered were solo home runs.

Russell Martin might be the most underrated fantasy commodity through the first two months of the season. He contributes in every category (nine steals already), and exhibits terrific plate discipline. He’s probably a top-25 fantasy player right now.

Through eight weeks of the season, Magglio Ordonez is the clear MVP of the American League, and it’s not even all that close. I wasn’t ready to call him done, but it’s safe to say Mags wasn’t a guy I targeted in fantasy leagues this year. How about a .673 slugging percentage to go along with 29 walks and just 26 strikeouts? He has 28 doubles this year. He had 32 last year in 593 at-bats. Meanwhile, Lance Berkman hit just his second two-bagger of 2007 Tuesday.

All frustrated 2006 Jhonny Peralta owners have to be kicking themselves watching him play this season. In 367 fewer at-bats, he is just two homers shy of last year’s total (13), has stolen two more bases and might beat his 2006 RBI total by the end of July.

Dave Duncan, where are you? Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes are a combined 2-18 this season.

Do you realize that Joe Borowski has 17 saves despite a 7.29 ERA? If you think he’s lasting in the ninth-inning role all season long, you must be about as wasted as Jack Nicholson at the MTV Movie Awards.

Judd Apatow has done it again. “Knocked Up” is legit. There will not be a better comedy out this year.

Except maybe this one.

Normally I’m not a big radio listener (more of an Arcade Fire, The Shins type), but I’m pretty into NIN’s “Capital G” and Incubus’ “Dig” right now. However, I’m still undecided about Chris Cornell’s cover of “Billie Jean.”

I’m sure you’ve all seen this by now, but Johnnie Morton might want to rethink that whole career change thing.

Chad Johnson to race a horse.

And finally, I’ll leave you with one of the craziest videos I’ve seen in a while.

Yankees to make playoffs

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

While everyone is pretty much counting out New York, it’s hard to imagine this team not making a strong run over the final four months of the season. Without a doubt, they’ve played poor baseball through eight weeks, and 12.5 games is a deep enough hole to probably discount any chance of overtaking Boston in the AL East. If that’s not bad enough, seven teams are currently ahead of them in the wild card race, so it’s easy to see why many foresee an October sans the Yankees.

However, the task may not be as difficult as it seems. A closer look at the teams ahead in the standings reveals a couple of frauds (Orioles, Mariners), a duo that’s getting ravaged by injuries (Blue Jays, Athletics) and two others that are frankly inferior in talent (Twins, White Sox). Which leaves us with the wild card leading Tigers, who are up 7.5 games as of now. It’s a solid team, but one with an imploding bullpen, injury-prone key players (Carlos Guillen/Gary Sheffield) and an aging vet playing like Babe Ruth (Magglio Ordonez).

But enough about the other teams, because when New York starts playing in accordance with their talent that suits up, it won’t matter. Entering the season, the Yankees looked like one of the three best teams in baseball, with the Red Sox and Mets also in the picture. Not enough has changed in my mind to drastically alter that viewpoint. In one-run games this year, the Yankees are 3-10, so expect that to start evening out soon. Of the top-five teams with the best on-base percentages this year, four of them have a top-five record in baseball. And then there are the Yankees, whose .353 OBP ranks third best, and yet their record doesn’t correlate like the others.

So it’s pitching that’s been the culprit. A 4.71 team ERA is ugly, but a starting rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang and some scrub (eventually Phil Hughes?) not only form a solid staff, but one of the better rotations in the AL. The bullpen has problems, but Mariano Rivera is still there for the ninth. Combine that with one of the most dangerous lineups in the game, and this team still looks like one of the best in the league. I don’t like the Yankees, and in fact, I hope they finish in last place, but people should not be so quick to assume their demise.

Sabermetrics

Sunday, June 3rd, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I was talking with a couple of Giants fans the other day, and it occurred to me just how oblivious the average baseball fan can be. One of these guys watches San Francisco play every single night yet had never heard the term OPS. When I described the statistic to him, he responded with, “I don’t like that stat because it punishes the little guy.” Well, he’s right, but that’s because the little guy just isn’t very valuable in real baseball. While stats like OPS could do a better job of incorporating stolen bases – they can’t be completely ignored – far too many teams, let alone casual fans, view the speedy leadoff types with too much fever.

My fellow Giants fan went on saying how much he missed Mike Matheny, because he was a “gamer” and a “great team and locker room guy.” I couldn’t change this guy’s opinion, as the false notion of team chemistry clearly outweighed the lifetime .637 OPS. Now, defense and the ability to handle a pitching staff need to be accounted for, but whether the person is likeable or not shouldn’t be. In an ideal world, players wouldn’t be threatening the lives of their wife and kids, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t sign Barry Bonds purely because he’s a prick.

It’s no coincidence winning teams often deemphasize stolen bases. This happens not necessarily because the coach rarely gives the green light in fear of giving up an out, but rather because the roster is devoid of the “gritty speedster” who is such a good locker room guy. Steals can wreak havoc and effectively distract a pitcher on the mound, but employing a poor on-base guy simply because he’s fast happens far too frequently (see: Duffy, Chris). There’s some evidence to back up these claims that fly in the face of traditionalists: the teams with the three best OBPs this year – Boston (.363), Cleveland (.361) and the Mets (.349) also just happen to have the three best records in baseball.

I guess I shouldn’t chastise the casual fan when the media is as guilty as anyone else, continuously rewarding players with MVP trophies based on the most unimportant criteria. It happened last year with Ryan Howard and Justin Morneau, with RBI totals apparently the deciding factor. And it happens almost every year with pitchers, as win totals often decide the Cy Young winner, with the second worst depiction of pitching, ERA, being the next factor. I don’t know about you, but I like to use stats that the player had more control over when evaluating their performance.

So the next time you hear someone say “he plays the game right” (think Joe Morgan), do me a favor and slap them across the face. We need to move past anecdotal baseball and into an era of the informed. Please join me in the cause.

The King has Arrived

Friday, June 1st, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

LeBron James became an NBA superstar before our very eyes Thursday night. Sure, the numbers have always been there, but he also always lacked that extra gear that only the true greats possess. The talent is so obvious, but it was unclear if there was the killer instinct that would enable him to reach the next level. Well, if Thursday’s game was any indication, the answer is a resounding yes. During the fourth quarter and overtimes, James poured in 29 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field. He scored Cleveland’s final 25 points and 29 of its last 30. How can someone that big be so quick? He could drive by and dunk on one of the best defensive team’s in the game almost at will. I’ve been critical in the past, and it remains to be seen if James continues to show his propensity of shifting into cruise control throughout entire stretches of games, but finally, there’s hope of him actually reaching the vast potential. Every sports fan should be excited. He’s averaging 26.8 points, 8.6 assists, 8.2 rebounds and 2.8 steals in the conference finals. I’m still not convinced Detroit won’t win the series (this same exact scenario happened during last year’s series between these two teams), but James is at least making basketball watchable again.

A-Rod

Friday, June 1st, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I don’t get what all the fuss is about. Isn’t the point to win baseball games, not make friends? Alex is such a lightning rod (no pun intended) for criticism it’s a joke. I don’t particularly like the guy, and the fact he prefers “she-males” doesn’t enhance his image too much either. Still, how is this any different than when an infielder decoys the baserunner by acting like he’s about ready to catch the relay throw? I thought the play was hilarious and applaud A-Rod, who is quickly turning into baseball’s biggest villain this side of Barry Bonds. It’s quite ironic, actually, considering the guy has always been so image conscious. I’m getting more than a little tired of all the sanctimonious preaching of morality and the codes of baseball.