Archive for August, 2007

Tight End Rankings

Thursday, August 2nd, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

As we continue to make the transition from baseball to football here at RotoScoop, numerous articles on rankings, team previews and much more will be on the way. Of course, we won’t completely ignore baseball, especially since this is basically the beginning of the stretch run. My tight end rankings follow:

1. Antonio Gates – Philip Rivers is only going to improve the more seasoned he gets, and he’s already pretty good. Gates might be the best red zone target in all of football and could even line up at WR more this season. There’s an outside chance he puts up numbers equivalent to a top-5 wideout. He’s worth reaching for.

2. Tony Gonzalez
– He’s 31 years old and appears to be on the decline. Tony G. is also likely to be catching passes from a rookie, but that’s not always a terrible proposition for the tight end position. He no longer separates himself from the rest of the group in this tier.
3. Vernon Davis – Last year, he relied solely on physical tools while struggling to learn the playbook. This year, he becomes a monster. Davis is the ultimate combination of speed and power, and while his hands have failed him from time to time, they only figure to become more consistent. V.D. is all about upside.
4. Jeremy Shockey – It looks like Shockey is never going to become the superduperstar some had envisioned, and nagging injuries continue to slow him down at times, but he’s still a pretty good receiver. He led all TEs in goal line targets last year, so an increase in TDs is possible.
5. Todd Heap – Since Steve McNair can no longer throw a football more than 15 yards through the air, Heap is the main beneficiary. Like Jeremy Shockey, Heap is consistently hampered by injuries, but he’s about as safe of an option as you can find when he’s on the field.
6. Chris Cooley – Cooley’s numbers improved dramatically when Jason Campbell took over last season, and this is the same offense Al Saunders ran when Tony Gonzalez put up gaudy stats back in the day. He’s an excellent guy to target later on in drafts.
7. Ben Watson – The Patriots like to throw near the goal line and figure to do so with more frequency now that Corey Dillon is jettisoned. The acquisitions of Randy Moss and Dante Stallworth may mean more mouths to feed, but Tom Brady trusts Watson, and he might actually see increased looks with Daniel Graham gone. Watson has deceptive speed for his size and has the potential to finish the season as the second best tight end in fantasy football.

8. Jason Witten – After a disappointing 2006 campaign, Witten enters this year slightly undervalued. The main reason being the sudden decline in touchdown receptions, but that’s what happens when T.O. is your teammate. Once Tony Romo took over for Drew Bledsoe, Witten became fantasy relevant again, so expect more of the same in 2007.
9. Kellen Winslow – The reports have been more positive than I anticipated, but Winslow’s health is a big cause for concern entering the season. Despite the unsettled QB situation in Cleveland, Winslow has tremendous upside if fully healthy. But it’s a risk I’m willing to let someone else take.
10. L.J. Smith – If Donovan McNabb could be counted on to stay healthy for a full season, Smith would be higher on this list. As is, he’s a bottom tier TE1. He is playing for a contract, so maybe he’ll be extra motivated.
11. Alge Crumpler – Crumpler’s fantasy value took a major hit when Michael Vick took Bob Barker’s “help control the pet population” plea a little too far. Crump-diesel may still be starter-worthy, but Joey Harrington is nothing short of awful.
12. Heath Miller – After a promising rookie campaign, Miller was a huge disappointment last season, but that was in large part to how Pittsburgh used (or didn’t use) him and no fault of his own. This year, Bruce Arians opens up the passing attack, and Miller becomes a terrific sleeper at the position.
13. Randy McMichael – McMike is reunited with Scott Linehan, whom he enjoyed his finest seasons with. The Rams like to throw near the goal line more so than any team in football, so expect McMichael’s TDs to creep up.

14. Dallas Clark
15. Tony Scheffler
16. Owen Daniels
17. Daniel Graham
18. Desmond Clark
19. David Martin
20. Ben Troupe

The Scoop

Wednesday, August 1st, 2007

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I wouldn’t concern myself too much with Frank Gore breaking his hand. In fact, one might even construe it as good news, as he’s now less likely to suffer a serious injury during training camp. He’ll be able to stay in shape and should enter the season with fresh legs. He’s a playbook junkie, so he’ll know the new system, and the less preseason work, the better when it comes to running backs. LaDainian Tomlinson didn’t have one carry in the fake games last year.

Brandon Jackson has gotten off to a slow start in early camp work, but Vernand Morency’s recent knee injury that will sideline him for two weeks highlights his biggest weakness – durability. This is a guy who has never carried the ball 100 times in a season, and Jackson is familiar with the zone-blocking scheme (he played under the same system in college), so his pass-protection problems will improve in time. He’s clearly the one to be targeting in fantasy leagues, and with Green Bay’s defense on the upswing, there’s a decent amount of potential if given the opportunity.

It’s easy to forget, but Daunte Culpepper has averaged 7.7 YPA during his career. Sure, Randy Moss had a big part in that, but 7.7 is seriously good. That said, there are rumblings that it will take one more full year before his knee is truly recovered, leaving his availability for Week 1 in question. Judging by the fact he turned down the Jaguars’ three-year proposal to sign a one-year deal with Oakland, maybe he’s more confident in his knee than I am.

Everyone knows to never draft a kicker before the final round (and yet it still happens all the time, even in so-called “experts” leagues), but it’s not because having the best kicker isn’t a decent advantage – in fact, it is. It’s just that the position is the most unpredictable of all. Adam Vinatieri won’t get you many long field goals, but in that offense and with that accuracy, I’m OK with someone bidding $2 on him.

Maybe more than any other position, when to draft fantasy defenses largely depends on scoring format. Last year my selection of the Bears in round six went from looking like a reach to looking like a steal by season’s end. But then again, we use yardage allowed as an additional scoring method, something the majority of leagues do not. Still, the Bears (and Ravens) were likely a lot more valuable last year than where they were drafted in almost every league. However, no team has ever been this dominant for three straight seasons, so history suggests a drop off is likely. But with Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre and Jon Kitna in the division, turnovers should come aplenty. I’m on board with aggressively bidding or drafting Chicago, Baltimore and maybe even San Diego, but if not, then make sure you roster at least a couple of defenses with later round picks. Like quarterbacks, defenses are the other best position to utilize matchups week-to-week.

If you don’t get Antonio Gates this year, then you shouldn’t be looking to address the tight end position until at least rounds 7-8.

Wherever Willie Parker is selected in your draft, it’ll be considered a steal by the end of the season. Expect him to be much more active in the passing game with Bruce Arians opening things up, while continuing to get the majority of goal line looks. He’s approaching top-5 territory.