The Scoop
By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Hanley Ramirez versus Jose Reyes is the biggest debate entering the 2008 season. Ramirez should hit for a higher average and much more power, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and bats in a far inferior lineup, especially with Miguel Cabrera gone. Reyes was brutal during September, but his price tag should be slightly lower, can single-handedly win you the steals category and has shown an improved walk rate. In the end, the guess here is that if you end up with either player, you’ll be quite happy.
Catcher is incredibly thin this year, even more so than usual. After the top-5, there’s a precipitous drop off. There are some decent sleepers to be had later on, but if you’re playing in a two-catcher league, you better address the position fairly early.
I could make a decent argument that B.J. Upton deserves to be a first round fantasy pick this year. He’ll be available at second base, posted an .894 OPS as a 22-year-old and nearly went 25/25 last season despite playing in fewer than 130 games. Sure, his high K-rate and BABIP from last year suggests a lower batting average is in store, but he also started to develop a keen batting eye after the All-Star break. When you combine his age with his power/speed potential, few can match that upside. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if he were a top-3 pick next year.
Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman are going to seriously outperform their ADPs this season. Neither will be a big help in the power department, but average is the most underappreciated category, and both of these Angels have the ability to hit .310-.340 as soon as this season. In fact, neither have a batting average. They have a batting outstanding.
Remember Ugueth Urbina? Whatever happened to that trial? Dude still in jail?
Travis Hafner is a confounding player, as there’s no telling whether Pronk’s 2007 was the beginning of a decline or just an aberration. His OPS dropped a full .160 points from the prior season, and he’s about to turn 31 years old. His body type isn’t exactly conducive to aging gracefully. Still, his plate discipline remained strong last year, and he was arguably baseball’s best hitter from 2005-2006. It would have been nice had an injury been to blame, but no major one was reported, and the huge decline in slugging is cause for concern. Draft him only if it comes at a significant discount.
Did you guys hear? They found bin Laden.
Right now, Erik Bedard sits No. 3 on my SP rankings, and I’m closer to moving him higher than lower. After April of last season, he posted a 2.34 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He also limits homers and flashed an incredible 10.9 K/9 IP. His oblique injury also limited his innings, making him more likely to enter 2008 with a fresh arm. Moreover, a trade is a real possibility, and a move out of the AL East (into the NL?) would be a major boon to his stats as well. Go get him.
Top-5 Kurt Russell Movies
1. Tombstone
2. Escape From New York
3. Captain Ron
4. Overboard
5. Tango & Cash
January 24th, 2008 at 12:19 am
And yes, I’m aware those movies are campy.
January 24th, 2008 at 5:27 am
Stargate! And no I’m not a super nerd (although I did just exclaim Stargate on fantasy baseball comment so I guess I should reassess…) Also, Val Kilmer deserved an Oscar for Tombstone. The Academy would never consider that film though, not unlike Jack Nicholson’s portrayal of the Joker. Really, I’m not this dorky. Just a pet peeve.
Hafner seems like one of those guys that people avoid and then halfway through the season they’ll say “What was I thinking? He’s Travis Hafner!”
January 24th, 2008 at 5:43 am
Big Trouble in Little China should be #2!
Cheezy but funny!
January 24th, 2008 at 6:13 am
Travis Hafner and Andrew Jones. Two players I will never draft again.
Im with you on BJ Upton. Kids got talent. His brother too.
If anyone called the breakouts of Brandon Philips or Curtis Granderson, I would like to hear from you.
January 24th, 2008 at 7:37 am
Love Upton. Got him last year in the equivalent of like the 20th round in a fairly deep keeper league and am still laughing about it. He basically reminds me of a young Soriano…..30/40 should be doable, with maybe some bigger things as well. Thank god the Rays finally caved in and put him in the OF full time.
Re: Russell–wait, didn’t you just say that ‘Death Proof’ was one of your favorite recent flicks?
January 24th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Nate - Well I’m your Huckleberry! Ah, ya Stargate. Good call. That was good. I was hyping Hafner last year, but I’d lie if I didn’t say his age is a concern.
January 24th, 2008 at 8:18 am
Jeff - Well done sir. Big Trouble in Little China is another classic. Kurt Russell deserved a top-10, he can’t be held to 5.
January 24th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Donald - I hear you about Hafner and Jones. However, I could see Andruw being a little undervalued this year. He’s only essentially a two-category player these days, but he’ll want to build back his value for a big contract in 2 years, and I could see a 45-HR season. But I have certain guys I’ll never touch again as well. Read: Baldelli, Rocco
And I certainly didn’t call Phillips or Granderson last year. Granderson in particular made a huge jump (OPS). Too bad he can’t hit lefties.
January 24th, 2008 at 8:29 am
Dreamweapon - Ya I just excluded Death Proof to get some new blood in there, but I def. liked it more than most on that list. It wasn’t ridiculousness enough to be lumped together.
Upton as a 20th rounder is pretty good value I’d have to say.
January 24th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Dude –
First of all, I wish this column was three times the length. More, more, more!
Second, as far as Kurt Russell movies, Tequila Sunrise beats Tango and maybe Overboard. I also agree Deathproof might need to be in there too.
January 24th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Ya, Deathproof does deserve to be in there. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Tequila Sunrise, actually.
January 24th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Doesn’t it just kind of feel like Russell should have been involved with ‘Point Break’ somehow? Or am I just nuts?
January 24th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Ya definitely. Swayze, Keanu, Gary Busey, Russell - would have been a fantastic foursome. My head probably would’ve exploded.
January 24th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
DDD,
I’m sold on the batting outstanding.
Brett
January 24th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
What? You call yourself a Russell fan? Tequila Sunrise — Russell, Gibson & Pfeiffer in her prime! Also features the late Raul Julia. Written & directed by Robert Towne. Do yourself a favor & rent it. It’s great flick.
January 25th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Brett - Glad you liked that.
January 25th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
I admit, my Kurt Russell fan club card should be revoked - or at least temporarily suspended - until I see Sunrise. Shame on me. RIP Raul Julia.
January 25th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Have you (finally) seen ‘Miller’s Crossing’?
January 26th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Deathproof was interesting…especially poor Kurt at the end. I did dig the tire to the face move though.
I don’t think you can lose if you end up with either of the SS’.
I need Hafner to have a big comeback year.
I’m ready for some baseball talk, as I’m going to have serious keeper issues!
January 26th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
I actually did finally see Miller’s Crossing. Good stuff like you said. Fargo was on TV today too.
January 26th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Bring those keeper questions. I’m here to serve.
January 26th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Cool beans, I loved that flick.
Yes, by all means, beisbol cannot get here soon enough.
Here is a Q to get the ball rolling: just how big of a sacrifice should one make in a bid to land Justin Upton in a keeper league (7 kept…plus, he’s a prospect so under our rules his first three years following activation by his owner won’t count against the regular keeper cap)?
My arch enemy team has him….but the two of us have swung several megadeals, including guys like Felix, Sizemore and Braun, so nothing is impossible. He has Vlady Daddy in RF already (specific OF positions)….and also has Hermida and Tabata as RFs in his minor league system as well. He has no CFs, and his pitching is a debacle. I have offered him the rights to two of my prospects, McCutchen and Phil Hughes, in exchange for Upton and a prospect to be named later (someone I would take in the draft….probably Villalona or Porcello if they last; Julio Teheran if those two go too early). I’d still have to burn one of my own picks on one those guys as well, but that’s alright.
Despite his man-love for the younger Upton, he’s on the fence about it. I’m no averse to throwing in a nice draft pick if I have to, my team is going into this year in phenomenal shape, I look like one of the top-2 teams in the league on paper. I’m just wondering if I’m not going overboard. Can Hughes get his velocity back and really dominate at the major league level? Can McCutchen learn to control the plate better, and will the Pirates’ incompetence break him? Is Upton really the “must have” guy everyone claims?
January 26th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Let’s put it this way - I wouldn’t blame the other guy for taking that deal, but it’s a swap I would recommend you make. McCutchen was horrible against righties last year, and while he’s still young, he’s nowhere near the prospect Upton is. I like Hughes a lot, but any pitcher in the AL East has somewhat of a ceiling. And as you mentioned, his velocity dropped some last season.
Upton could approach 20/20 this year and 30/30 by 2009. Great home ballpark. Big time potential. Yeah, I’d do it.