Archive for February, 2008

The Scoop

Friday, February 15th, 2008

By Dalton Del Don- Senior Writer

I’ll be without Internet access for most of the weekend, so don’t take offense if I’m slow to respond to the typically witty remarks in the comments section. The following is my top-15 overall fantasy players, but again, I’m not too concrete right now, as there’s a lot to debate. Ultimately, it seems to me there’s a big-4, and then a muddled rest, meaning you’ll be more than fine with a late pick this year.

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. David Wright
5. Chase Utley
6. Ryan Howard
7. Miguel Cabrera
8. Albert Pujols
9. B.J. Upton
10. Jimmy Rollins
11. Matt Holliday
12. Johan Santana
13. Ryan Braun
14. Prince Fielder
15. Alfonso Soriano

And just for fun, here are my predictions for the NBA All-Star weekend festivities:

Rookie/Sophomore Game = Sophomores
Shooting Stars = Who Cares
Skills Challenge = Dwyane Wade
3-Point Contest = Jason Kapono
Slam Dunk Contest = Jamario Moon
All-Star Game Winner = Western Conference

The Scoop

Wednesday, February 13th, 2008

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Rickie Weeks presents an interesting dilemma; on one hand, he’s a mid-round selection whom I could see becoming a top-10 pick next season. He has 35/35 upside. However, he’s no secret, and my “mid-round” proclamation keeps getting higher and higher. As does his price tag in auctions. He’s officially starting to become an expectant cost, rather than speculative. His walk rate soared last year and his final six weeks were flat-out ridiculous (11 homers, 15 steals). However, injuries and batting average remain concerns. He’s never had more than 409 at-bats in a season and has hit better than .300 in just two of the 16 months he’s played in the big leagues. Still, he has to be considered a top-5 fantasy second baseman right now.

Few, if any, pitchers in baseball have better stuff than Rich Harden. However, the guy’s body has simply failed him, and his unwillingness to pitch through pain means eventual surgery may be the only resolution. The fact he has already complained of pain and required a cortisone shot can’t be good signs. Maybe he’ll put it all together one season, and he’s becoming cheaper and cheaper in fantasy leagues after burning so many past owners, but Harden has to be considered one of the bigger disappointments in baseball over the past few seasons.

Instead of always going for the young, high upside pick, sometimes it’s better to land an under the radar veteran in the right situation. That’s why I’m targeting Ryan Church in NL-only leagues. After posting a solid .886 OPS over the second half last season, a move out of RFK Stadium can only help, as does joining the potent Mets’ lineup, where he should actually have plenty of job security, as least versus righties. I’m expecting a .275-23-90 season.

No one’s fantasy value went up more than Clay Buchholz’s recently. I would be shocked if Curt Schilling throws another pitch during his career, leaving 180 innings for Buchholz. Sure, there will be some growing pains, and throwing in the AL East limits his ceiling, but this kid’s stuff is for real. Last year’s 22.2 innings pitched was obviously a small sample size, but that they resulted in 22 strikeouts, zero home runs allowed and a no-hitter suggests big things to come. If forced to choose, I’d rather Joba Chamberlain long-term, but there’s really no wrong answer between those two.

With Kelvim Escobar suffering his yearly injury already, I’d strongly advise avoiding him, no matter how much he slips because of it. Escobar has the talent to win a Cy Young someday, but he’s another hurler who simply cannot stay healthy for a long stretch of time. And yes, this makes Ervin Santana worth a late-round flier yet again. Maybe once everyone has finally given up, that’s when he’ll turn the corner. Maybe.

Speaking of underachievers, don’t forget about Carlos Quentin, whose 2007 season was ruined by a shoulder injury. He gets a fresh start in Chicago now, where he’ll be batting in one of the most homer-friendly parks in the game. He could prove to be a steal this year. Also, the White Sox in general have a much better team than most realize. Their lineup is legit, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish ahead of the Indians in the AL Central this season.

Roy Oswalt will be appearing on exactly zero of my fantasy teams. A rising walk rate combined with a sinking K rate is a recipe for collapse. He actually turned in a very solid second half last season, but with his body type, he never figured to be a horse into his 30s. I’d take Matt Cain over him in a heartbeat.

If you’re searching for a deep sleeper, look no further than Dallas McPherson, who is entering the “post-hype” phase of his young career. Back problems and ugly strikeout rates have failed him so far, but new surroundings in Florida may lead to some of that potential finally being reached. There’s legitimate power here.

Top-5 Jim Carrey Movies

1. Dumb & Dumber
2. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
3. Ace Ventura: Pet Detective
4. The Cable Guy
5. Me, Myself & Irene

Top-5 Tom Cruise Movies

1. Magnolia
2. Rain Man
3. Eyes Wide Shut
4. A Few Good Men
5. Vanilla Sky

Shortstop Rankings

Monday, February 11th, 2008

First off, I’d like to apologize for the lack of posts recently. I’ve been pretty busy, but that neglect will come to an abrupt end soon enough. For now, chew on these top-notch SS rankings, with more analysis, hilarious jokes and thought-provoking commentary to follow later this week.

1. Jose Reyes
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jimmy Rollins

4. Derek Jeter
5. Carlos Guillen
6. Rafael Furcal
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. Miguel Tejada
9. Michael Young
10. Edgar Renteria
11. Orlando Cabrera

12. Stephen Drew
13. Julio Lugo
14. Felipe Lopez
15. Yunel Escobar
16. Khalil Greene
17. Jhonny Peralta
18. J.J. Hardy
19. Jason Bartlett

20. Bobby Crosby
21. Yuniesky Betancourt
22. Brendan Harris
23. Alex Gonzalez

Comments: I’ll probably change my mind two or three more times before the season starts, but for now, it’s Reyes over Ramirez, by a hair. Ramirez’s shoulder surgery was nothing minor, and the differences in lineups are massive. And Reyes’ steals are huge. Still, Ramirez has the bigger overall upside if everything breaks right…Carlos Guillen rakes, is more likely to stay healthy now playing first base and hits in the middle of an absolutely ridiculous lineup…Rafael Furcal is an excellent value pick this year…Let someone else overpay for J.J. Hardy’s awesome couple of months last year…Stephen Drew is going to have serious value eventually. It might be this season…Alex Gonzalez could have a .270-23-80 season. It’s at least possible, which isn’t bad for someone going so late.

Third Base Rankings

Friday, February 8th, 2008

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. David Wright
3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Ryan Braun

5. Chone Figgins
6. Aramis Ramirez
7. Garrett Atkins
8. Ryan Zimmerman
9. Chipper Jones
10. Alex Gordon
11. Adrian Beltre
12. Edwin Encarnacion

13. Hank Blalock
14. Troy Glaus
15. Mike Lowell
16. Josh Fields
17. Evan Longoria
18. Kevin Kouzmanoff
19. Scott Rolen

20. Andy LaRoche
21. Eric Chavez
22. Chad Tracy
23. Akinori Iwamura
24. Pedro Feliz
25. Melvin Mora

The Scoop

Wednesday, February 6th, 2008

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Before we get started, I’d like to report a change in scheduling. My weekly radio segment has moved times and will now be airing Mondays at 8:25 PST on XM channel 144.

Although I’m stating the obvious, Johan Santana’s fantasy value sees a definite boost with the move to the Mets. Not only will the league switch be huge, but he also improves offenses as well. It’s ironic that the best pitcher in baseball has only one plus pitch. Of course, that pitch is probably the best in the game. Also, his command – the most important aspect of pitching – is pretty good as well.

I’m fascinated with HBO’s new show “In Treatment.” It’s a quite a commitment, since there’s a 30-minute episode on every single weekday, but I do recommend it.

In most drafts, there seems to be a clear top-3 (ARod, HRam, Reyes), but I’m going to argue there’s actually an obvious top-4, with David Wright sliding in next. A rarity, Wright contributes in all five roto categories, and it’s easy to forget he’s still just 25 years old. Last season’s 30/30 campaign looks even more impressive when you realize he finished April with zero homers and just three stolen bases. He hit .364/.465/.596 with a 42:53 K:BB ratio after the All-Star break. In fact, I don’t think he can go too high in drafts this year.

Carlos Pena is moving up my draft list as the season approaches. It’s never easy backing someone coming off such an obvious career-year, and he’s almost guaranteed to regress in 2008. However, I actually think he can become a bargain because of those facts. A once big-time prospect, Pena’s power and plate discipline are for real. When looking at his home runs from last season, a far greater percentage were “no doubters” than the league average, so the luck element can’t be blamed. Also, Pena’s isolated slugging (.344) was better than Alex Rodriguez (.331) and Prince Fielder (.329). He also had more walks per plate appearance (.168) than stars like Ryan Howard (.165), David Wright (.132) and Magglio Ordonez (.111). Don’t go taking some lower upside first baseman like Derrek Lee over him.

This lady might want to reevaluate her priorities. Or not.

One good thing to remember when analyzing a player’s walk rate is that K:BB ratios don’t always tell the whole story. Placido Polanco has a terrific batting eye, but his walk totals don’t reflect that because pitchers simply aren’t afraid of his bat. Conversely, it’s no coincidence that hitters like Sammy Sosa started walking at incredibly higher rates once he started compiling those 60-homer seasons. How pitchers treat hitters can have just as much of an affect on walk rates as the skill itself.

If you are looking for a breakout candidate, look no further than the Nationals’ outfield, where one exists at each spot. I like Lastings Milledge’s power/speed potential the most, but Austin Kearns isn’t too far behind. He saw his strikeouts per plate appearance (.157) drop dramatically last season, and RFK Stadium really suppressed his numbers, something that won’t be a problem this year. He may not ever develop into the star that he was once expected to, but still just 27 years old, there’s time for him to become a major fantasy asset. Oh, and Wily Mo Pena could easily clobber 40 bombs this season as well. And for those in NL-only leagues looking for a late flier, try Elijah Dukes, who would also likely excel if one of the aforementioned players were to get hurt.

What an awesome product. I’m definitely purchasing one of these.

Willy Taveras looks like a better value pick than Juan Pierre this season. Pierre has the big contract, but he’s the Dodgers’ fourth best outfielder, so banking on playing time is a little risky for the price it will take to get him. Taveras, meanwhile, is locked into his role on the Rockies, which included a 55-steal pace last year. An injury left him with 33 SBs, and since his career-high is still a modest 34 SB campaign, his price tag on draft day shouldn’t be too outrageous. He has Coors Field at his aid, and the Rockies clearly have given him the green light.

Pedro Martinez is another player I see as a bit undervalued right now. His surgery is far enough in the rearview mirror that he should enter 2008 close to 100 percent, and while his fastball no longer breaks 90 MPH, his changeup and ability to locate remain top-notch. It also doesn’t hurt that other than maybe Greg Maddux, he’s the game’s smartest pitcher. His 32:7 K:BB ratio and zero homers allowed over 28 innings last season reveal there’s still plenty left in the tank, and with that offense, he should have no trouble in the wins department either. He’s 36 years old, which is hardly ancient when you realize Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens are 44 and 45, respectively. However, taking Martinez in your fantasy draft would be tempting the karma gods, as this is pretty disturbing.

Monday Morning Quarterback

Monday, February 4th, 2008

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong. I expected New England to win handily. However, with that said, the outcome did not come as a shock, as this Patriots team just hasn’t looked the same recently. I won’t call it the biggest upset in the history of the league, but I will call it the most improbable (and impressive) run in the postseason ever. New York is the lowest NFC seed to ever win the Super Bowl. They also became the first SB winner with just one Pro Bowler on their roster.

The opening drive was absolutely huge. Sure, it resulted in only a field goal, but the Giants offense ran 10 minutes off the clock and really set the tone for the game.

The Giants defense flat-out dominated. After New York’s first drive, its offense did little favors, putting the onus heavily on the D. This was the best offense in the history of the NFL in perfect conditions, and the G-Men’s defensive line recorded five sacks, hit Tom Brady 16 times and pressured him 23 times. Also, they held the star QB to just 5.5 YPA and the running game to a paltry 2.8 YPC. It was one of the single greatest defensive performances I’ve witnessed.

It’s David Tyree’s world, the rest of us are just passing through. Fun fact: he entered Sunday with more tackles than receptions for the season.

The one clear negative from Sunday’s terrific game is that we now still have to deal with the insufferable 1972 Dolphins.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, Jay Alford - it’s safe to say the Giants did a nice job with their 2007 Draft.

It’s almost unfathomable, but it’s hard to argue that Steve Spagnuolo and company didn’t outcoach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Speaking of which, you couldn’t have paid me enough money to conduct that interview with the red-hooded one afterward. Cold would be a nice way of describing his demeanor. Oh, and who cares if he left the field 1 second early?

The commercials were downright brutal. And nice lip-syncing, Mr. Tom Petty.

After “leading” the NFC in turnovers, Eli Manning improbably played nearly mistake-free football throughout the playoffs. Before Week 17 against the Pats, Manning hadn’t thrown for multiples TDs in any of his previous eight games. He tossed multiple scores in four of the five contests since. Also, for some reason, he really excels at the no-huddle, which was obviously huge Sunday.

So not only was Plaxico Burress playing with a bum ankle but also a sprained MCL? I doubt many Steeler fans predicted his career would take this kind of turn.

Were Tiki Barber and Jeremy Shockey literally negatives for this franchise?

That was the loudest Super Bowl crowd I can remember. It sure seemed like the suits stayed at home, and the seats were filled with actual football fans.

I can understand the constant flashing to Peyton Manning would annoy some, but I actually enjoyed watching him show genuine happiness rooting for his brother.

It’s likely a coincidence, but there’s been one common dominator involving two of the NFL’s biggest upsets over the past decade, and that’s Randy Moss.

How refreshing, a Super Bowl that wasn’t decided by the refs.