By: Robby Wellington – Staff Writer
Stolen bases are the rarest of commodities in the fantasy world. Home runs are hit more than twice as much as bases are stolen and, accordingly, stolen bases are more than twice as valuable (discounting a home run’s collateral categorical benefit). However, stolen bases are also one of the most difficult categories to prognosticate when drafting your team. When you think about it, it is the only category based primarily on effort. Even the most lumbering of beefy sluggers can probably swipe 15-20 bases in a season if he’s so inclined, but Juan Pierre could swing for the fences every at-bat and not crack double digits in home runs. The fact of the matter is, a wide range of factors contribute to whether a player runs or not: Is his manager giving him the green light? Are the guys behind him hitting well? Are his legs fresh and healthy? Does he have some sort of personal stolen base goal that we’re unaware of? Does his son have him on his fantasy baseball team? The stolen base shortage is further exacerbated by the playing time uncertainty of some of the game’s top basestealers (Ryan Freel, Dave Roberts, Joey Gathright, Corey Patterson, Kenny Lofton, Jason Repko). There is nothing worse than a DNP in your starting lineup. Anyhow, now that the season is nearly a fifth of the way through, let’s reexamine the top basestealers, guys who appear undervalued in terms of steals, guys who are overvalued and a few big question marks. Without further adieu:
(The following five players should battle all year for the stolen base crown. Podsednik, Pierre and Crawford probably will return the most value in a trade).
1. Jose Reyes (60) – Reyes continues his second half SB barrage from last year and is on pace to draw more than twice as many walks as last year.
2. Scott Podsednik (58) – Probably the most likely in this group to reach 80 steals. His four steal game last week and Ozzie Guillen’s recent announcement that the White Sox need to run more should bode well.
3. Juan Pierre (57) – Pierre has only been caught once and with Lee out for a while, expect Pierre to run often, especially when he raises his horrible .275 OBP.
4. Carl Crawford (54) – The current MLB leader in swipes has seen decreased production across the board in all other categories due, in part, to a lingering shoulder injury. Don’t worry though, Crawford is ever-cognizant of his stats (stating in the preseason that he wanted to be the top fantasy player) and could approach 60 steals in an effort to compensate.
5. Chone Figgins (51) – Expect something in between his ’04 and ’05 numbers.
Ichiro (38) – While Ichiro won’t keep up his current rate, he should be a good bet to steal the most bases since his eye-popping rookie campaign, especially with the Seattle offense floundering.
Dave Roberts (37) – The brittle Roberts is worth playing as long as he is healthy and running. Feel free to bench him, however, when he is slumping or facing a lefty, and keep that DL spot warm.
Johnny Damon (33) – Damon’s move from the sedentary Sox to the more freewheeling Yankees has, and should continue to, resulted in a visible spike in his steal totals.
Kenny Lofton (32) – Lofton has run well since his return from the DL and should be able to swipe at least 30 bags, even while platooning with Jason Repko. If you have the space, you can probably garner an additional 10 steals by platooning these two yourself.
Julio Lugo (31) – Lugo’s 39 steals apparently came out of nowhere last year, and after missing over a month this year with a strained back, he has come back with a vengeance, swiping three bags in the last three games, and looks like he will provide some good stolen base value over the rest of the season.
Josh Barfield/Hanley Ramirez (31) – These two rookies should have reasonably good stolen base totals to go with serviceable peripherals all year long. The low-profile teams they play for should make them affordable or available in many leagues.
Wily Taveras (29) – Taveras is off to a slow start in steals but should pick it up from here on out and approach his ’05 numbers.
Jimmy Rollins (32) – Rollins has gotten off to a slow start in the steal department, and I have a hard time picturing him approaching his 41 from last year.
Felipe Lopez (28) – Lopez has surprised so far with 11 steals, a pace which should slow down. Nevertheless, his owners have to be happy with his overall production so far.
Adrian Beltre (27) – Despite his horrific start, Beltre has nearly made up for it with nine steals so far. While that pace should drop, it should remain adequate, and he has to start hitting better. I’m going to toe the RotoScoop party lines here and say that he is still a “buy low” candidate.
Bobby Abreu (23) – Abreu is getting older, and it’s hard to advocate him running as much as he used to in the Phillies powerful lineup.
Joey Gathright (21) – Gathright has gotten his looks, thanks to Cantu and Baldelli getting hurt. However, he has been downright atrocious and will be lucky to get another 200 at-bats this year.
Jason Bay (19) – Many people, including me, had Bay pegged for 30 or so steals this year after his torrid second half in ’05. It’s now looking like he may be hard-pressed to match his total from last year.
Ryan Freel (30-40) – Assuming he can continue to get somewhat regular at-bats (and Griffey Jr. isn’t looking like he is going to be around a ton this year), Freel should run quite a bit. It’s just hard to consistently start a guy who might be benched every few games, especially since his other numbers are so unimpressive.
Corey Patterson (20-45) – Patterson went on a recent tear and, given the playing time, could have a big fantasy season. If you can afford it, roll the dice on him.
Brian Roberts (25-35) – Roberts was on a tear, stealing nine bases in ten games, before landing on the DL with a strained groin. Clearly, this is a situation to monitor closely when he returns.
The importance of steals in fantasy baseball cannot be overstated enough (at least in rotisserie leagues, frankly, I’m a proponent of punting steals in head-to-head leagues). Adam Dunn going 1-4 with a run, RBI and homerun is actually less valuable than Ryan Freel going 0-0 with a pinch run stolen base and no runs. It only takes a couple of speedsters to finish near the top of your league in stolen bases, and usually, they can be had for very little. Monitoring the ebb and flow of stolen bases in real baseball should allow you to remain close to the top of your fantasy league while sacrificing very little in other categories.
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