By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer
Don’t worry, I’m not going to beat a dead horse here, although I will quickly say two things. First, all things being equal, if he had never taken steroids, Bonds would still have a ton of home runs, maybe 50-70 fewer than he does now (as opposed to the 150-200 fewer that most people seem to be projecting), and he would still be the greatest player of the past 15 years. Second, Babe Ruth was far and away the most dominant player the game will ever see. However, if he were to step out of a time machine and play today, he would be nothing more than a marginal starter. Moving on, the real question I’m trying to address here is what sort of fantasy production should we expect from here on out from Barry, and what sort of league formats does he provide the most value in?
Let’s address the production question first. Now I know that Bonds has been struggling all season long and that the weight of catching the Babe is allegedly taking a toll on his body and mind. But I also know that he went yard virtually every at-bat in spring training and can certainly get hot in a hurry. I see Bonds finishing the season with somewhere around 135 games played (although 20 of those will be as a pinch hitter), and a statline of .290, 35, 80 with 100 runs scored and a healthy 1.100 OPS. Basically, pretty respectable numbers (especially considering his tepid start) but nowhere near the gaudy stats he put up before 2005. Let’s conservatively call him the 25th most valuable outfielder in fantasy baseball right now in a 5X5, daily transaction roto league.
I specify league format because Bonds’ value is largely contingent upon it, more so than almost any other player. If your league includes OPS, Ks or walks as offensive categories then Bonds moves up a couple of spots (more than a couple for walks) in overall outfield rankings. Bonds also possesses significantly more value in daily transaction leagues, as he sits every fourth game or so. While weekly transaction managers are forced to eat those DNPs, those making daily transactions not only have the luxury of sitting him, but also, thanks to the media scrutiny surrounding the home run chase, of almost always knowing when he isn’t going to play. Lastly, Bonds’ value takes a hit in head-to-head leagues, where the last few weeks of the season are by far the most critical, and there is a good chance that Bonds won’t be playing then, especially if the Giants fall out of the postseason race. If you’re like me and have him in a head-to-head league, see what you can get for him once he goes on a home run tear. . . which should be happening any day now, right Barry?
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