By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Everyone knows a big part of being a successful fantasy player is the ability to buy low and sell high. I’m all for this and even write articles suggesting players that fit the bill. There is, however, a common misconception about baseball players who are exceeding expectations and those who are falling short of them.
The prevailing theory many fantasy owners use when looking at a batter who is hitting, say .200 but is a career .300 hitter, is that he is more likely to hit around .400 the rest of the season in order to finish at or around the career .300 clip. After all, he has to make up for the slow start, right? This reasoning couldn’t be further from the truth. An easy analogy would be the coin flip principle. If you were to flip a coin and have it land “heads” nine times in a row, does that make it anymore likely to come up “tails” on the tenth flip? Of course not, it’s still a fifty-fifty proposition.
Now, there is a caveat here. Some players, albeit only a few, are truly better hitters in the first half or second half of any given season. These players are by far and away the exception, not the rule, but need to be noted nevertheless. These are players who have shown extreme season splits throughout their entire career and should be judged accordingly. Again, make sure this trend has been exhibited for a fairly lengthy amount of time before putting too much stock into it.
More often than not, there are legitimate reasons behind these splits, not just random acts. Chris Young’s ERA rose nearly a point last year in the second half presumably because the Texas heat took a toll on him, as it does to many Rangers’ pitchers. It’s anybody’s guess, on the other hand, why Barry Zito has a career 5.04 ERA in April and in no other month is it above 3.76. Same goes for Johan Santana, whose ERA is a full 1.37 points lower in the second half in his career. Aubrey Huff and Adrian Beltre both see their OPS’ increase by nearly 100 full points after the All-Star break. But these instances are about as rare as seeing a sober Tara Reid.
It’s great when your player gets “hot,” but no one knows if that streak will last five games or 25 games, and nothing can predict which option is more likely. Hitters obviously develop and improve; just make sure that it’s because of a developing skill, not luck (i.e. he’s shown an improved contact rate and an increase in plate discipline). This reveals a legitimate expectation of improved numbers and not purely a “hot streak.”
The point to be made here is to always assume your player will hit like he has for his career; follow the regression to the mean theory. If he hit .200 in the first half and is a career .300 hitter like the aforementioned example, expect him to hit .300 the second half, not .400. If you avoid the hot fallacy, his performance will be much closer to your expectations, trust me.
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