Monitoring Stolen Bases

By Robby Wellington – Staff Writer

While it is far too early to start worrying about your players’ stats over the first few games, one category that merits monitoring early on is stolen bases. Unlike other hitting categories, stolen bases are all about effort and opportunity; David Ortiz could probably swipe 40 bags if he were so inclined. Steals early on in the year can simply be flukes or, may portend monster steal totals at the end of the year. Let’s try and sort out the most precious of all fantasy baseball commodities.

Kenny Lofton – Lofton has a plum spot atop the Rangers lineup and with two steals on Opening Day, not to mention a 32 out of 37 success rate last season, it appears that the old man still has it. Look for Lofton to approach 40 swipes.

Willy Taveras – For some reason, the Rockies love to run, which is good for Taveras since that is all the guy can do. Assuming that he doesn’t lose too much playing time to Steve Finley, and he shouldn’t, Taveras is my dark horse candidate to lead the majors in SBs.

Vernon Wells – Wells had some unprecedented success running last year and is off to a fast start. This very well may be the year he cracks 20.


Darin Erstad – Apparently Darin Erstad is still playing. While most people remain skeptical of the North Dakotan, he was a consistent 20 steals guy in his prime. 15 steals seems reasonable.

B.J. Upton – The Rays love to run, and Upton should be able to take advantage of that this season. A full workload should yield 30-40 swipes.

Corey Patterson – Patterson’s value is rooted in his ability to run and hit jacks. An early steal bodes well for Patterson owners, as he usually gets them in bunches. He has a decent shot of reaching 40 SBs this year.

Alex Rodriguez – A-Rod has shed some extra poundage and could get back to the mid 20 range this year.

Barry Bonds – Bonds is back and better than ever! From circus catches in left, to opposite field jacks and stolen bases, I expect Barry to have his best season yet. A 70/70 campaign is not out of the question.


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17 responses to “Monitoring Stolen Bases”

  1. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Personally, I think 60/60 is more realistic. If Erstad stays healthy and has a good season, I’m going to shoot someone in the face.

    Bill Hall is a guy I was really curious about, as there was talk about him running more. Unfortunately, having been caught his first two attempts, I’m worried he might not be trying much more!

  2. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Keith, as a Bill Hall owner, those two failed attempts were killer. Usually I like to see my guy get caught over not running at all but 0-2 to start the season is rough. The next one is going to be big!

  3. maddendude Avatar

    Lofton has had 2 hits all season. This shouldn’t mean anything at all, but still, I’m curious about what you project his average to be. Recently in his career he’s gone from .275 to .335. I just don’t know what other numbers to expect.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    If the Rangers platoon Lofton, which they should, and the fact Ameriquest should boost his average as well, I could easily see Lofton batting around .315-.325 this year. If you’re in a daily league, just be sure to sit him against lefties.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I’m setting the over/under on Erstad hitting the DL at May 1.

  6. Andre Avatar
    Andre

    I’ll take the under.

  7. Poincare Avatar
    Poincare

    As will I.

  8. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Upton as a full-time player (just got him for Moise Alou; I still hopes he ends up being able to qualify at a couple different spots), what kind of numbers do you think he can end up with? The 30-40 steals seems reasonable on that team though, as they’re already running like mad.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Andre/Poincare – I decided I won’t take that bet.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – I really like that trade for you. If a draft was held today, Upton would go much higher than Alou. He shouldn’t have huge counting stats hitting at the bottom of the order, and an average in the .270-.280 range should be expected, but I seriously think 15 homers and 45 steals are reachable.

  11. randy Avatar
    randy

    hi, i need advice for keeper league. do i trade r. cano for h. kendrick and homer bailey, if i do i will have to cut b. erbe or c. parmelee from my minor league list because we can only keep so many———-thanks

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I’d do it Randy. Kendrick has at least as much long-term potential as Cano, and plus you’d also be getting a top-5 prospect back in return. Although having to drop one of those other minor league guys hurts, I still think it’s worth it.

    As for which one to drop, well, both are top prospects, so I’d basically suggest you dump the one that plays the deeper position on your team – that is, depends on if your team is strong in hitting or in pitching. I’d def do this deal though.

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