By Dalton Del Don
Taking a small break from baseball, I thought now is as good of time as any to compile some (very) preliminary fantasy football rankings. Plenty will change between now and late August, but really, is it ever too early to discuss some football? And before we get started, let me take a moment to recommend purchasing the RotoWire Fantasy Football Magazine, where you can get more than 12,500 words on my running backs section. Although editor Chris Liss botched a few of my rankings with rearrangement, it’s still a good read, if for no other reason than to justify the ridiculous amount of time it took. Hope none of you thought I was above shameless self-promotion. Seriously, Chris does a very good job with the wide receivers, and Mike Salfino is equally impressive with the QB section. I’d probably recommend it regardless based on my involvement, but in this case, I truly believe in the product. And now, onto the rankings – first up is quarterbacks.
1. Tom Brady – Repeat after me: do not take a quarterback in the first round. Last year’s second half stats (7.6 YPA, 20 TDs) is a much better barometer for 2008’s expectations than his first half (9.1 YPA, 30 TDs). That’s still very good.
2. Peyton Manning – There’s probably around a 45 percent chance Manning outscores Brady this year. The consistency is great, but again, let someone else use a high pick on him.
3. Tony Romo – Terrell Owens’ age is concerning, as is Dallas’ improving defense. Still, the offense is a force, and Romo is the real deal.
4. Carson Palmer – Palmer had the worst season since his rookie year in 2007, so he’ll come cheaper. With a bad defense and questionable running game, there’s plenty of potential for a nice campaign from Palmer.
5. Drew Brees – Brees’ weak 6.8 YPA last year didn’t matter because he attempted a staggering 652 passes. The Saints figure to remain pass-heavy, and he did get 8.0 YPA the year before, so there’s nice upside here. A few more weapons would help.
6. Jay Cutler – He’s going to be a star. Cutler’s solid sophomore year (7.5 YPA) looks even better after the revelation he lost 30 pounds while playing with an undiagnosed case of diabetes. He can run and has a rocket for an arm. One caveat – Brandon Marshall needs to avoid incarceration.
7. Ben Roethlisberger – Roethlisberger is one of the five most valuable players in the league, and Santonio Holmes is developing into a Pro Bowler. However, Pittsburgh’s offensive philosophy hurts. It will be extremely difficult for Roethlisberger to approach last year’s 32 TDs while attempting just 404 passes.
8. Matt Schaub – No one else will rank him this high, so feel free to wait. He and Andre Johnson need to stay healthy, but there’s massive potential here. Last season’s 7.8 YPA is an elite number, and the low accompanying TD total was a fluke. Gary Kubiak has installed a great system in Houston, and the defense is shaky, which could lead to a monstrous 2008.
9. David Garrard – He’d be ranked higher if Jacksonville passed more. Garrard developed into a star at the QB position last year, and he can also run. Jerry Porter could help, but the team isn’t great at WR.
10. Matt Hasselbeck – In Mike Holmgren’s system, Hasselbeck doesn’t necessarily need name-brand receivers at his disposal, but still, this will be his weakest group to work with yet. Moreover, the defense is emerging and the running game can only get better with Shaun Alexander jettisoned. Still, the NFC West is a great place for offense.
11. Derek Anderson – Anderson is in a great spot – Cleveland has a poor defense and terrific receivers. He was fantastic over the first half last year (8.2 YPA), but his play fell dramatically afterward (6.2 YPA, 55.6 completion percentage). Another problem is Brady Quinn breathing down his neck. He’ll get drafted too high.
12. Donovan McNabb – McNabb’s best days are behind him, but one more year removed from knee surgery should help, and hopefully it also leads to a few more rushing stats. Health is always an issue, but improved red-zone play should lead to more touchdowns.
13. Eli Manning – Manning’s always been able to post solid TD totals despite low YPAs, and it remains to be seen if his big step forward in the postseason transfers into 2008. He’s a solid, yet unspectacular option.
14. Jake Delhomme – He’s 33 and coming off major elbow surgery. However, all health reports have been overwhelmingly positive so far, and Delhomme posted an 8:1 TD:INT ratio in the three games before he got injured last year. He also has added weapons on offense. It’s simple, if he and Steve Smith can both stay healthy (a big if), QB1 numbers should follow.
15. Aaron Rodgers – This will take a leap of faith, and Rodgers has been anything but durable so far in his career, but the Packers are loaded at wide receiver and the offensive system remains strong. He’ll be a first time starter, but he’s far from a rookie, and Rodgers can also give you rushing stats. He’s a sleeper to target.
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