By Dalton Del Don
I’m a big fan of Elijah Dukes, both as a player and as a person (OK fine, mostly the former). He had a .972 OPS after the All-Star break last season, clubbing 10 homers (with five steals) over his final 124 at-bats. He also walked 50 times over 81 games, so a strong OBP looks likely. In 2007, he had a .192 BABIP while last year he hit just .233 against left-handers, and he’s still just 24 years old, so there’s room for plenty of growth as well. It’s not all good, as Adam Dunn and Lastings Milledge are locked into outfield jobs, while Nick Johnson will start at first if healthy. That leaves just one spot for Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns and Dukes, and as Scott Pianowski will rightfully tell you, it’s wrong to just assume a manager/coach will play the superior player, and it’s our job to predict playing time well aware that the guys in charge often make mistakes in this regard. That said, Johnson is a candidate to be traded or get hurt, Kearns sucks, and Willingham is hardly special, and that’s assuming Milledge and Dunn stay healthy. It might be frustrating at first, but Dukes could be the team’s best hitter this year, so his bat really will be hard to keep out of the lineup.
One of my favorite late round targets at middle infield this year is someone who hit .213 with a .599 OPS last year. Khalil Greene was flat-out awful in 2008, and Petco Park wasn’t even to blame, as he hit even worse on the road (.212). Still, for his career, he’s hit .270 with 25 homers per 162 games away from baseball’s toughest place to hit (and that accounts for last year’s disaster on the road). Greene is one year removed from a 27-97-89 season, is a plus defender and is in a contract year. Admittedly, this is anecdotal and an area I usually like to avoid, but the Cardinals really do seem to get the most out of their players unlike any other organization, so expect his swing to get fixed. Greene isn’t going to be an All-Star and will never help your BA, but he’s an underrated target, and call me crazy, but the Cardinals’ lineup could be sneaky good.
Carlos Zambrano ending up on any of my fantasy teams this year would be a bigger upset than Heath Ledger losing at the Oscars on Sunday. Not only is he a ticking time bomb healthwise, his K rate dropped sharply last season (6.2 K/9 IP). Zambrano has gotten away with poor command his whole career, as his 1.89 K/BB ratio is countered by a .277 BABIP. Still, his stuff simply isn’t the same as it once was, and his ERA over the final two months last year was 7.28. Last year his xFIP was 4.68, which is about what I’d expect his ERA to be in 2009. Among starting pitchers, Zambrano is outside my top-50.
Looks like PEDs aren’t completely out of the game after all, as San Francisco’s Brian Bocock dabbled in the performance enhancers this offseason. Only not quite the ones you’d expect.
Justin Upton’s current ADP of 202 is simply too low. I mean, Xavier Nady’s is 146 and Eric Byrnes’ is 159! Umm, this is a 21-year-old who just posted a .922 OPS after the break last season. He wasn’t legally allowed to drink until the end of the year. Want to know what type of players make it to the majors and accumulate 100 at-bats at age 20? Dave Cameron compiled the impressive list here. Sure, Upton strikes out too often, but this is someone who posted a .955 OPS in Double-A as a 19-year-old. And while he doesn’t exactly have the best SB success rate, he’s very capable of swiping 20 bags if he wanted to next year. And I actually like the fact he had huge home/road splits in 2008 (1.039 OPS vs. .562), as Chase Field will remain an extremely favorable hitting environment while it stands to reason he’ll show marked improvement on the road. Go get him.
From young to old, Randy Johnson is another recommended target, and that’s not just because I’m a Giants homer. Obviously, there’s risk with a 45-year-old whose fastball is nowhere near what it used to be, but the Big Unit had a 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 78:16 K:BB ratio over 86 innings after the break last season. Now, he won’t get to beat up on the Giants anymore (1.04 ERA over 26 innings), but he remains in the NL West and moves from an extreme hitter’s park to a pitcher’s venue. Surgery has seemingly fixed his previous back problems, so while he’s no lock for 180 innings, he has the upside of a top-20 pitcher. Plus, there’s the added bonus if you draft him then you can name your fantasy team “Randy’s Johnson.” Always a crowd pleaser.
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