Preseason Fantasy QB Rankings

 By: Jeff Chudnofsky – Staff Writer

The smoke from the NFL Draft has cleared but Fantasy Football junkies everywhere are starting to prepare for that other draft.  These rankings are sure to change as we grow closer to August, but let’s take a stab at it early. We start things off with a preliminary look at the signal callers who might help or hurt you in ’06.

First Tier

1. Peyton Manning– With the injuries to Carson Palmer and Daunte Culpepper and the ousting of TO from Philly, Manning is the favorite to be the first QB selected.  The off-season loss of Edgerrin James could result in many coverage heavy looks, but Manning is likely to air it out with success despite Edge’s departure. Week 15 looks to be a fantasy playoff shootout against Cincinnati. Quarterbacks are at a premium this year, so instead of reaching for a second or third tier RB in the second round you might want to give Manning a look.
2. Kurt Warner– Manning’s loss is Warner’s gain, as Arizona will finally have a running threat.  With a dangerous receiving corps, Warner will post good yardage numbers as long as he can stay healthy.  Rookie Matt Leinart is not likely to steal any starts in the event that Warner is unscathed.  A week 16 matchup versus SF could result in a fantasy championship for many Warner owners.
3. Carson Palmer– Had Palmer not been injured in the playoffs, I’d probably list him as the top fantasy QB for this year.  It is not clear when he will return to action, but if Palmer owners can find a quality second starter for the first month of the season and make the fantasy postseason, they will be rewarded with the aforementioned week 15 scoring fest vs. Indy.
4. Tom Brady– The Pats will continue to lean on Brady, as he is likely to top 4,000 yards passing yet again.  Along with 25 TDs, Brady rounds out the bottom of the first tier.  I’d be tempted to grab him ahead of Palmer due to his durability and the decline of Corey Dillon.  New England should be a pass first offense.

Second Tier

5. Marc Bulger– If I was confident he could stay healthy for 16 games, Bulger would be a sure fire first tier QB.  Scott Linehan will provide a pass oriented playbook, and with weapons like Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis and Dominique Byrd, Bulger will have a chance to rack up huge numbers, provided that he stays upright.
6. Matt Hasselbeck– Seattle’s opponents will no doubt look to stop the run first, and although Hasselbeck won’t put up insane numbers, he will be a consistent option in a year of mediocre fantasy options.
7. Donovan F. McNabb–  McNabb no longer has TO to propel him into the top tier, but Philly will still have at least a 60/40 pass to run ratio.  He could easily be a top QB, but with his collection of injuries and the lack of a true target, I wouldn’t have the stones to take him higher than the previously mentioned QBs.
8. Jake Delhomme– Although Carolina will implement a ball control offense, the duo of Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson will allow Delhomme to eclipse 3,500 yards passing with touchdown totals in the mid 20s.  Like Hasselbeck, you won’t get many 300 yard games, but he should provide consistent weekly performances.
9. Daunte Culpepper– With Chris Chambers establishing himself in the second half of ’05, Culpepper will have the much needed deep threat that he lacked last year.  Assuming he enters training camp healthy, he should be a fine starter.  As his health status improves, so will his fantasy ranking.
10. Brett Favre– If you can live with his 20+ interceptions, you can probably live with his 4,000 yards.  He doesn’t want to leave the game on a sour note, so look for Favre to improve upon last years numbers, despite losing Javon Walker.  He will not be as consistent as the others, but will provide a few 300 yard, 3 TD games. He should still be a solid option in the middle rounds, but don’t reach here for namesake alone.

Third Tier

11. Drew Bledsoe– Like Bulger, if he can stay healthy big numbers are a legit possibility. The acquisition of Terrell Owens will help Bledsoe out tremendously with Terry Glenn working in single coverage.  With the potential for 4,000 yards, let someone else grab McNabb, Favre and Daunte and take a flyer on Bledsoe.
12. Ben Roethlisberger– The Steelers leaned on Big Ben’s arm in the playoffs so a moderate shift to the passing game is a possibility. The Steelers are still a run first team, but if you can pair Roethlisberger with a player like Leftwich or Eli Manning, your QB position will have a solid combo for matchup starts.  If you are without a top ten QB at this point, chances are you will be rotating QBs and Big Ben is arguably the best option to start your musical chairs.
13. Eli Manning– Will this be the year he emerges from his brother’s shadow and lives up to the hype? In his third year, a breakout season is more likely than not, especially with weapons like Burress, Shockey, Barber and the newly acquired speedster Sinorice Moss. He might not be as safe as Roethlisberger, but this is the prime example of high-risk, high-reward.  If I am building my team with RBs and WRs in the early rounds (as most people do), I’d jump at the opportunity to grab Manning and hope for his coming out party.  Come August, you’ll probably see him in my top ten.  At the end of the year, he could very well be a top five QB.  Keep an eye on him for the rest of the off-season.
14. Michael Vick– Ron Mexico is more of a fan favorite than a weekly fantasy starter.  He is more valuable for his rushing yards than his passing efficiency and is a major injury concern as he is always putting himself in harm’s way.  A solid second starter, Vick should not be drafted with the hopes of carrying your fantasy team.  Backup QB Matt Schaub is lingering, as the Falcons declined trade offers for him over the course of two off-seasons.  A switch at the helm in 2007 would not surprise.
15. Drew Brees– Yet another QB returning from off-season surgery, wait until training camp to see how his shoulder progresses.  With Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth and Reggie Bush at his disposal, Brees could put up solid numbers worthy of being a  No. 1 starter.  Take the wait and see approach and try to steal him in the mid-late rounds.
16. Aaron Brooks– The Kerry Collins experiment failed, but with Norv Turner out of Oakland, look for the Raiders to take more of a consistent approach.  Oakland retooled their offensive line and added HOF tackle Jackie Slater to assist fellow HOF lineman Art Shell to shore up the blocking schemes. With Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Doug Gabriel and Lamont Jordan filling out the skill positions, it is tempting to lean on Brooks.  The truth is that Oakland spent a lot of draft picks and will no doubt add more talent through free agency to address defense.  The Raiders will take a ball control philosophy through Shell and limit Brooks’ throws and turnovers.  You will still see some 300 yard games and 80 yard bombs to Moss, but Brooks is a safer option as a fantasy backup.  Grab him in the later rounds and you might have a steal in the event that Oakland’s offense lives up to its explosive potential.
17. Billy Volek– SLEEPER ALERT! With Steve McNair likely a Baltimore Raven, Volek will finally get his opportunity to start the season as Tennessee’s main signal caller.  Vince Young will be brought along slowly, and Volek showed his potential at the end of ’04, helping many fantasy owners win championships with his late season heroics.  With Norm Chow in the fold and a sub-par defense, look for Volek to post solid numbers in 2006.
18. Washington QB– Mark Brunell is still the starter entering training camp, but Jason Campbell made huge strides in practice and is in the running to compete for the starting job.  Brunell is the likely winner, but whoever wins will inherit a potentially explosive offense featuring Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Brandon Lloyd, Antwaan Randle El and Chris Cooley.  With offensive guru Al Saunders acquired from Kansas City, the winner of this QB battle will have the opportunity to post monster statistics.
19. Byron Leftwich– Lord Byron was showing glimpses of fantasy stardom last year before he suffered a broken ankle.  Although he no longer benefits from a cupcake schedule, Leftwich will make for a quality spot starter with a week 15 game against the Tennessee Titans.
20. Trent Green– Once a sure fire 4,000 yard passer, Green is showing signs of aging, as is his main target, TE Tony Gonzalez.  The Chiefs are a run first team, as the reigns are handed to brute RB Larry Johnson.  Green will have some monster games, but most of the time he will be watching Johnson carry the rock for someone’s championship fantasy team.  He’ll make for a decent fantasy backup QB.