By: Robby Wellington – Staff Writer
A few days back I discussed strategies to getting the most out of your pitching staff and noted certain factors to consider when making your decisions (opponent, opposing pitcher, home/road, hitters/pitchers park, hot/cold streak, etc.). However, there are many more nuanced issues that affect a pitcher’s projected performance, far too many to process really. So who has the best idea of how a pitcher and their team will perform? How about Las Vegas oddsmakers? They provide you with an accurate tool for handicapping who will win the game (the moneyline) as well as for how many runs should be scored (the over/under). While they also factor in the strength of each team’s bullpen in setting these odds and don’t take into account certain pitching stats which don’t affect real baseball but do fantasy (WHIP and Ks), it seems as if you can use these two numbers in helping you make your starting pitching decisions. I spent a little while tinkering with these numbers, trying to come up with a formula that essentially ranks a pitcher’s value for a certain start based on the moneyline and over/under. The best I’ve come up with is this:
Moneyline Value – 20 * Over/Under = SPs Vegas Value
The moneyline value is equal to the absolute value of the favored team’s moneyline (e.g. the Tigers today are -124 so Bonderman’s MV is 124) and 200 – the underdog’s moneyline (the Twin’s are +114 today, making Scott Baker’s MV 86). Also the over/under has to be adjusted .5 runs for every 10% of juice added to a side (for example the o/u in the A’s vs. Devil Rays game today is 9, but the over is even and the under is -120, making the adjusted over/under 8.5). Now this equation is far from perfect, as any pitcher whose team is an underdog is going to have a pretty low final number, even if they’re a great pitcher. And the equation may lean a little too heavily on the moneyline and a pitcher getting a W (to wit, anyone throwing against the Royals right now is a good bet to top the day’s rankings. Javier Vazquez’s White Sox are a whopping -275 against them today, putting his Vegas Value at +115. Barry Zito is a distant second vs. the D Rays at +50 followed closely by Peavy vs. the Cubs at +38).
Now I’m not necessarily advocating using that equation to determine your questionable starters. The fact is, I just made it up and it’s definitely a bit flawed, hopefully I can tinker with it some more and come up with something a little more accurate; until then, I won’t be using it. However, I will be checking the odds on borderline starts and selecting spot starters, and if my guy is favored, or a slight underdog with a low o/u (8.5 or less), I’ll probably give him the nod. I recommend that you do the same.
Leave a Reply