By Jeff Chudnofsky – Staff writer
The Elite
1) Larry Johnson– Gram’mama amassed 2,093 all-purpose yards and 21 touchdowns in 2005, despite starting only nine games for the Chiefs after filling in for the injured Priest Holmes. Kansas City’s new bell cow will continue where he left off last year with the offensive line intact for at least one more season. Expect similar numbers from Johnson, who has the potential to rush for 2,000 yards if healthy. Holmes will not be a factor, as he has not yet been medically cleared to play in 2006.
2) Shaun Alexander– Although not overpowering or blazing fast, Alexander is a force to be reckoned with in a division that has yet to stop him. Named NFL MVP in ‘05, Alexander set the single season touchdown record with 28. Road grading left guard Steve Hutchinson left via free agency, breaking up the leagues best offensive line tandem with LT Walter Jones. The loss will be a factor, but not devastating enough to oust Alexander from the fantasy elite. If not for the emergence of Larry Johnson, Alexander would be the undisputed No. 1 fantasy back.
3) LaDainian Tomlinson– The previous fantasy king was a little off his game last year, mostly due to nagging injuries. Although he never missed a start, Tomlinson was not his usual self during the fantasy postseason. Fantasy owners should not worry, for even in an off year, LT2 gained 1,832 all-purpose yards and 20 TDs. He is the most talented back in the NFL but does not have the luxury of an elite offensive line like the aforementioned backs. The third slot is a great place to be picking this year, as you will still get a No. 1 caliber running back. Tomlinson has the potential to outperform both LJ and Alexander, but for now he must share the spotlight.
First Round Talent
4) Clinton Portis– With the arrival of former Kansas City offensive coordinator Al Saunders, Portis inherits the playbook that allowed the record setting success for Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. With plenty of talent in the D.C. passing game, Portis should rarely face eight defenders in the box. Spot duty running back Rock Cartwright may steal a few carries on occasion, but Portis’ upside is tremendous considering the coaching, offensive line and complimentary weapons in Washington. The stout Redskin defense will be a big factor in providing great field position as well as a favorable time of possession. Don’t pass on his upside.
5) Tiki Barber– After a 2,390 all-purpose campaign in ’05, Barber must be considered in the top five. Fantasy owners in point per reception leagues should take notice of his 54 catches in 2005. Second year RB Brandon Jacobs will vulture a few touchdowns, but Barber will still get double-digit scores for the third straight year.
6) LaMont Jordan– After arriving in 2005 via free agency, Jordan flew under the radar and ran for 1,025 yards, caught 70 balls for 563 yards and scored 11 times in 14 starts (he missed the last two games due to turf toe). Oakland’s line is retooled this year as Robert Gallery is moved to left tackle, allowing Langston Walker to return to his natural position at right tackle. To improve matters, the Raiders rehired head coach Art Shell, who is a Hall of Fame offensive lineman and is paired with fellow HOF Tackle Jackie Slater, who now coaches the line. Expect running lanes to improve as well as a better time of possession. With Norv Turner and Kerry Collins out of town, the play calling and execution can only get better. Expect 1,200 yards rushing and continued success in the passing game.
7) Edgerrin James– Edge is immediately welcomed to a potent offense in Arizona that will give him the opportunity to run with seven in the box. Arizona’s O-Line was putrid last season, but key additions in the draft and free agency should open things up in ’06. Don’t expect to see the same numbers he racked up in Indy, but he shouldn’t fall too short either. In fact, Cards backs have previously put up better receiving numbers than the Colts, so better numbers through the air should absolutely be expected. 1,300 rushing yards, double-digit scores and a slew of receptions is not out of the question at all.
8) Rudi Johnson– The Big Cat is a quiet force in the high-scoring Cincinnati offense. He is a bruising runner who has rushed for over 1,400 yards in consecutive seasons. Former first round pick Chris Perry will steal plenty of touches, but most of them will come on third downs as Johnson does not have the surest of hands. With Carson Palmer’s health uncertain, the Bengals may have to heavily rely on the ground game in the early parts of the season. Expect another quality rushing season in 2006, as 1,300 yards and 10+ scores are likely.
9) Ronnie Brown– With Ricky Williams serving a season long suspension, Brown will carry the load for what could be an explosive offense in South Beach. If the passing game can provide balance, Brown will prove worthy of a late first round pick. Brown will likely receive 300 carries in 2006 in Ricky’s absence, which would eclipse 1,200 rushing yards at his current clip of 4.4 ypc.
10) Carnell Williams– Cadillac rushed for 1,178 yards and six TDs on his way to becoming NFL offensive Rookie of the Year in 2005. Williams came out of the starting gate by leading the league in rushing, but his workload proved too heavy for a college platoon player one year removed from school. He will have his legs under him this year, so don’t expect him to slow down in the second half like he did last year when he hit the rookie wall.
11) Julius Jones– The addition of Terrell Owens will be a catalyst for Jones’ career. As long as he can stay healthy, Jones will have open running lanes and a brilliant coach who knows how to chew the clock with the lead. Marion Barber III will steal carries, but at this point, Jones is the undisputed starter when healthy. If he can get 20 touches per over the course of 16 games, Jones can emerge as one of the fantasy elite.
12) Domanick Davis– When the Texans picked Mario Williams ahead of Reggie Bush, Davis exhaled the biggest sigh of relief of his life. Davis will be the workhorse for new head coach Gary Kubiak, who will implement the zone blocking schemes that made running backs so successful in Denver. A good receiver out of the backfield, Davis will put up solid yardage numbers with 40-60 receptions. If Davis can stay healthy and capitalize on goal line carries, he could easily be a top ten back under Kubiak’s regime.
Second Round Studs
13) Steven Jackson– Now in his third season, Jackson has potential, but must use his shoulder pads in order to stay healthy. The effect of the Linehan for Martz switch remains to be seen.
14) Willis McGahee– The self-proclaimed “Best back in the NFL” has his work cut out for him behind one of the leagues worst offenses.
15) Kevin Jones– Detroit’s addition of Brian Calhoun doesn’t scare me, but Jones’ durability does.
16) Chester Taylor– He will reportedly receive 20-25 touches per game in Minnesota. With the Steve Hutchinson and Tony Richardson additions, there is actually quite a bit of upside here.
17) Willie Parker– FWP rushed for 1,200 yards in 2005. Just imagine what he can do as The Man. He will even receive the goal line carries now. You heard it here first folks.
18) Reggie Bush– This spot is higher for the taste of some, and too low for others. Depending on the health of Deuce McAllister, Bush should go somewhere in the mid-second round. I think he’ll be electric but am concerned about his workload. 1,500 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns is what I see in my crystal ball. Kudos to those of you who get points for punt returns and special teams TDs.
19) Joseph Addai– If he can win the starting job, I wouldn’t be able to pass up the Colts’ running back here. Follow this situation closely, as there is top-10 ability here. Remember, Rhodes looked like a stiff last year.
20) Jamal Lewis– Remains to be seen how he can rebound from a disastrous 2005. He should be improved, but let someone else gamble.
21) Brian Westbrook– He will likely catch 70+ balls, but rushing yards and TDs must improve. Same goes for his health. Without TO around, the Eagles may rely on Westbrook more than ever.
22) Reuben Droughns– Steady, not flashy, Droughns will rush for 1,200-plus if he can stay on the field.
The Best of the Rest
23) Warrick Dunn– Dunn rushed for a career high 1,416 yards in 2005, but with Duckett and Vick around, there are vultures galore.
24) Thomas Jones– Jones wants out of town, but is likely to stay since Chicago found no takers during the draft. Though Jones is the better back, Cedric Benson looms.
25) Deuce McAllister– I have never been a big fan of this guy. Deuce is rehabbing from off-season ACL surgery and prepares to share the backfield with Reggie Bush. If healthy, expect goal line carries and close to 1,000 rushing yards.
26) Corey Dillon– Age, injuries, poor O-line were all factors in 2005. Laurence Maroney will be a factor in 2006.
27) DeAngelo Williams– Must beat out DeShaun Foster for starting gig, and even if he loses, Foster will break his leg in the shower by week 2. Once Foster does go down, Williams could return huge value.
28) Ron Dayne– What is the world coming to? Dayne is currently in line to get 15-20 carries per game for the Broncos…
29) Tatum Bell-…and Tatum is there to challenge him. The most likely scenario is a 50/50 split, but this is a committee with value in Denver. If one wins the job outright, top-10 ability is there.
30) Chrissy Brown– Runs like the Road Runner.
31) Curtis Martin– End of the line champ.
32) Frank Gore– After destroying MANBEARPIG, Gore should beat out Barlow for the starting gig in SF’s youth movement.
33) Cedric Benson– Let’s see what you got ‘Ced. The Bears drafted you for a reason.
34) Fred Taylor– Let the Maurice Drew era begin.
35) Kevan Barlow– Yaaaawwwn.
36) T.J. Duckett– Goal line machine with about 40 ypg.
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