By Dalton Del Don
The wait is over – time to start cranking out the baseball notes. Just two short months before the start of the season, and I, for one, can’t wait for it to get here.
For me, there’s a clear cut top-six this year – Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, David Wright and Grady Sizemore. That order can differ plenty, but I can’t see taking any other player with the first six picks, and I also see a decent drop off afterward. You’re at a sizeable advantage picking early in 2009, as there are a bunch of similar players going in the late first round all the way until the end of the second round.
The designated hitter position is riddled with old, injury-prone players this year – David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, Travis Hafner. There are some bounce back opportunities here, but make sure these guys come at a significant discount. And then there’s Billy Butler, who hit nine of his 11 homers after the All-Star break last season, when his slugging percentage jumped nearly 150 points. Still, his OPS versus righties was a disgusting .597, so he has plenty of work left in front of him.
I expect Stephen Drew to end up on a bunch of my teams this year. He sacrificed walks for more power last year, which fantasy owners will always take. He also has Chase Field working for him and quietly hit .326/.372/.556 after the All-Star break last season. Drew is also capable of stealing more bases if he so chooses, so don’t be shocked if shortstop’s big three gains a new member in 2009.
I’ve seen Chase Utley go in the first round of some early drafts, which is just too soon for someone who may miss the first month, or even two, of the season. If he beats the odds and returns in early April, there’s obviously big upside with Utley, but a pick that early simply needs to be safer than someone returning from major surgery, as there’s also no telling how close to full strength he’ll be even when he does return to the diamond.
What do we make of Carlos Quentin? Finally breaking out when healthy, he was one of the league’s best players in 2008. In fact, he was on pace to finish with 45 homers, 125 RBI, 120 runs, nine steals and a .288 BA before a wrist injury ended his season prematurely. The performance was hardly a fluke, and he even got better as the season progressed, posting a 24:23 K:BB ratio with a 1.117 OPS in 141 at-bats after the break. Quentin also has a terrific hitting environment at his disposal. However, 2008 was the only year in the majors he’s even approached reaching his potential, and he’s proving to be quite an injury risk. Moreover, wrist injuries are toward the top of the list as most worrisome for hitters, although he claims he’s 100 percent recovered already. Right now his ADP pegs him as a late third round pick, which seems about right.
There’s a starting pitcher who finished with a 17-7 record, 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP last season, and yet, he’s not in my top-60 SP rankings. Joe Saunders’ 4.68 K/9 IP and 1.94:1 K:BB ratios were flat out awful. According to his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), his ERA should have been 4.43, making him the third luckiest pitcher in baseball (Armando Galarraga and Daisuke Matsuzaka were the first two, respectively). Good luck repeating that .267 BABIP. Avoid Saunders like the plague this year.
The more I think about it, the more I see Tim Lincecum as a first round pick. I know the current trend among “experts” is to wait on pitching at least until after round five, and while I don’t necessarily disagree with this notion, Lincecum is the one outlier. He’s far and away the most valuable starting pitcher, separating himself by some distance from No. 2 – unless you don’t care about Johan Santana’s sinking K rate or rising BB rate (three straight years) or the fact he was extremely lucky in 2008 (.825 strand rate, 3.83 xFIP), then maybe Lincecum’s got competition. But if you care about those types of things, then Lincecum should easily be viewed as the No. 1 starting pitcher. Of course, I can understand avoiding that position early no matter the pitcher because of the inherent risk, not to mention Lincecum’s high pitch counts. Without a doubt, pitchers are riskier than position players, and also “wins” may be an issue backed by the Giants’ inept offense. However, after the top eight picks or so, who jumps out at you? Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday? Really? Give me The Freak.
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