By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Life is good in the Bay Area sports world right now. The Warriors look like they have a legitimate chance at one of the biggest playoff upsets in NBA history, the A’s are in first place, and the Raiders, well, they have the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft! And then there’s the Giants, who after an awful start have now won five in a row and seven of eight. Barry Zito is rounding into form, Matt Cain looks like a Cy Young candidate and Barry Bonds is back. In case you haven’t noticed, Bonds is slugging an acceptable .804 on the year and homering every 7.67 at-bats.
And yet, over any of the above mentioned, I’m most excited about Tim Lincecum, aka “The Franchise.” Most have him ranked below Philip Hughes, and many have him behind Homer Bailey and Yovani Gallardo as the game’s top prospects. Many would be wrong. There probably isn’t much more I can add at this point – the svelte right-hander has allowed nine hits, walked five and struck out 28 in 18 2/3 scoreless innings for Triple-A Fresno so far this season. He might already have the best curveball in baseball. Including his performance at Fresno this year, Lincecum has faced 191 batters as a professional and struck out 86 of them. His strikeout rate is roughly six standard deviations above the average for minor league pitchers. PECOTA views him similarly:
Upside
1. Tim Lincecum, Giants (23) 205.6
2. Philip Hughes, Yankees (21) 197.2
3. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (21) 132.4
4. Kevin Slowey, Twins (23) 123.3
Of the top-10 strikeout rates in the PECOTA database that dates back to 1997, Lincecum sits in first place, fanning an unbelievable 30.9 percent of the batters he’s faced. “Lincecum is probably best conceived of as a hybrid of Kerry Wood and Francisco Rodriguez, his top two PECOTA comparables, and he probably has better mechanics than either of them.” Not bad.
Now, Hughes is probably the safer bet of the two because of his build, but remember, he’s also set to pitch in the AL East, while Lincecum gets the NL West and one of the game’s best pitcher’s parks. He should be owned in all leagues right now, no matter how shallow. Although opportunity remains up in the air, as the one area of no concern for San Francisco currently is their starting rotation. And as much as Armando Benitez is likely to implode sooner rather than later, Lincecum absolutely has to remain a starter. Still, if an injury doesn’t strike first, Russ Ortiz’s 11/6 K/BB ratio over 20.2 innings will eventually catch up to him.
I have a friend of a friend (name drop alert) who played with Lincecum briefly last year in rookie ball, and let’s just say, the kid isn’t short on confidence. Neither am I when it comes to his ability.
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