By Dalton Del Don
I’m not exactly going out on a limb saying I like Roy Halladay this season, and I’m guessing I also won’t be the only person to suggest a move from the AL to the NL will be beneficial. However, I’m here to argue he should be closer to the No. 1 fantasy starter than anything below it, and while I typically won’t draft a SP too early, his current ADP (32.26) seems extremely low, as I view him as a legitimate late first round option. Halladay’s fairly high workloads over the past four seasons are of some concern, but the improvement in his K rate over the past two years has turned him into an elite fantasy option. Halladay’s xFIP has ranked first and fourth over that time span, respectively, and few pitchers possess his ability to induce groundballs (50.2 GB% last year) with such a strong K rate. Everyone knows Halladay is good, of course, but the move to the National League really can’t be understated. Over the past two seasons, he put up remarkable numbers (leading all of baseball in K:BB ratio each year), and he did so while facing the second-highest opponents’ aggregate OPS in 2008 and third-highest in 2009. To put that in perspective, Tim Lincecum’s schedule was ranked as the 54th hardest last year. And if you’re of the opinion wins are predictable, well, the Phillies’ loaded lineup shouldn’t hurt matters. Going from a division that featured three teams that finished in the top-seven in runs scored last season to one with the Nationals, Mets and Braves (who all finished in bottom-half of MLB in scoring), how good could Halladay’s numbers end up looking this year? I hope I find out that answer with him on my fantasy team.
It sounds like it will take Carlos Beltran 12 weeks before he even starts baseball activities, so don’t expect to see him before June at the earliest. Stay away in fantasy leagues unless he comes at a real discount.
Pablo Sandoval truly is a pretty rare case. He sports a .333 career batting average despite being by far the freest swinger in all of baseball. In fact, he had the second-highest O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) last year (second only to teammate Bengie Molina. As you can infer, the Giants really understand the merits of working the count) and would have “led†the category if he had enough at-bats during his rookie campaign in 2008. Moreover, “Kung Fu Panda†(seriously, how baked must have Barry Zito been when he was sitting at home watching that cartoon when he came up with the nickname?) also had the highest Z-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone) last year as well. What does this all mean, exactly? His .356 career BABIP suggests he can get away with this, but his 717 at-bat sample is hardly enough to learn if that number is sustainable. Then again, there’s also plenty of room for him to grow as a hitter given that he’s just 23 years old. Swinging at essentially every pitch thrown at him last season, Sandoval’s .943 OPS ranked seventh-best in the NL, and he somehow posted a 35:28 K:BB ratio after the All-Star break, so he showed signs of improvement in plate discipline. He’s generally viewed as a poor defensive player, but his -4.1 UZR rating at third last year wasn’t exactly an abomination for someone learning a brand new position at the major league level. I’ve never seen a more athletic person who weighs 250 pounds, but it’s also nice to hear about his rigorous offseason workout regime. Of course, it’s usually best to ignore such stories, and he’s supposedly gained some weight back after travelling home to Venezuela, but Sandoval clearly understands the benefits of taking care of your body, which can’t be bad. Someday I hope to do the same thing. With improved hitters surrounding him in the lineup, Sandoval’s counting stats have nowhere to go but up as well. I’d take him over Mark Reynolds.
I don’t know about you, but this tweet from Matt Holliday made me lower him in my outfield rankings.
On the opposite spectrum of the young and upcoming corner infielders, I wouldn’t mind grabbing Troy Glaus late in drafts. At age 33 and coming off a season ruined by injuries, he shouldn’t be too costly in fantasy leagues, but it’s worth noting over the previous four years (from 2005-2008), he averaged 31 homers and 91 RBI while never accruing even 550 at-bats in a season, including getting just 385 ABs in 2007. Glaus isn’t going to help in batting average, but if he’s back to health in 2010, there might not be a cheaper source for power.
A “Story Highlight†from Peter King’s latest MMQB column: “If Dwight Freeney sits with an ankle injury, Saints’ chances of winning increase.†Folks, you can’t get this insight elsewhere.
Good defensive back breakdown by Football Outsiders. It reinstates the obvious – that Darrelle Revis was the best defensive player in the NFL in 2009. But it also shows just how much respect the rest of the league has for Nnamdi Asomugha.
Jeff Clement is someone I’ll be targeting, especially in 2-C or NL-only leagues. He’s been completely overmatched during his big league career (.237/.295/.360 with 66 strikeouts over 219 at-bats), but that’s an extremely small sample, and this is someone who has posted an .865 OPS over his minor league career (1,526 ABs) and will now be moving to the easier league after Pittsburgh traded for him. Clement was taken third overall in the 2005 draft out of USC, so the pedigree is there, and the Pirates figure to give him a legitimate opportunity after he was the centerpiece of a trade that saw the team ship both Ian Snell and Jack Wilson to Seattle. Like all prospects, Clement may or may not pan out, but there’s a real chance he acts as the Pirates’ first baseman this season, and since he’ll be catcher eligible in fantasy leagues, he could prove to be a steal while playing everyday.
For those with Shin-Soo Choo in keeper leagues, you can breathe a big sigh of relief.
First the negatives: Juan Pierre isn’t a good real life asset, who played way out of his head during Manny Ramirez’s 50-game suspension last season and has hit one homer combined over the past three seasons. Still, there’s also plenty to like about his fantasy value in 2010. He’s been traded to the White Sox, where manager Ozzie Guillen will no doubt overrate Pierre’s silly attributes like speed and grittiness, which should lead to an everyday job, probably as the leadoff hitter. While he may have to adjust to playing in the American League for the first time in his career, Pierre moves to a much more favorable hitter’s park, and this is someone who averaged 55 steals over a seven-year span (2001-2007) before seeing decreased playing time in L.A. over the past two seasons (and even then, he swiped a whopping 70 bags despite never receiving more than 380 at-bats in either year). Incredibly durable, Pierre also sports a 337:340 K:BB ratio throughout his career, so he’s very likely to help in BA as well. I’m a big fan of Jacoby Ellsbury (20.34 ADP), but it makes a whole lot of sense to draft Pierre 17 rounds later (251 ADP).
The best answer to an interview I’ve seen since Mike Tyson was prominent. Since I’ve seen this, I’ve started to use this specific answer as a response to basically all things in life.
The first of many to come.
I’m staying far away from Ryan Franklin at draft tables this year. He enters 2010 as the Cardinals’ closer, but there’s little reason to respect his ERA (1.92) from last season. This is a pitcher with unimpressive stuff who posted a 17:17 K:BB ratio (and a 1.70 WHIP) after the All-Star break last season, and while he typically keeps the ball on the ground, last year’s 85.7 LOB% and ridiculously lucky 3.7 HR/F% simply aren’t repeatable. Jason Motte, meanwhile, posted an 8.58 K/9 last year and suffered poor luck with a HR/F% of 16.6. He’s been criticized in the past for being essentially a one-pitch pitcher, but his slider was actually effective last season, and although his fastball wasn’t, the average velocity was 95.9 mph, and let’s not forget he posted an 11.9 K/9 over 164.2 minor league innings while also fanning 27 batters over 23.1 innings after the All-Star break for St. Louis last season. With Chris Perez now in Cleveland, there are few alternatives in the Cards’ bullpen. Forget the discrepancy in ADPs, I’d draft Motte ahead of Franklin this year.
As for this installment of my YouTube songs, I’m throwing a curveball right out of the gate: a Bjork song with a music video directed by the ridiculously talented Michel Gondry:
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